Chelsea’s actual and ‘expected’ performances undercut fans’ transfer panic

Chelsea fans seem desperate for new signings, but as Saturday’s home victory against Burnley shows, Frank Lampard’s current squad is well-equipped to secure a top four finish even without any new additions.

Saturday’s win against Burnley was significant for a few reasons. For one, it was the first Premier League home victory in three attempts, and a clean sheet at that. It was also the game in which Callum Hudson-Odoi netted his maiden Premier League goal.

More crucially, however, in light of dreadful home games against West Ham, Bournemouth and Southampton, all of whom employed some version of a low block against their hosts, the 3-0 win against Burnley was symbolic of the Blues’ ability to find a result against teams that choose to dig in deep.

This becomes relevant when discussing potential transfers into the club. Those home losses to highly defensive teams were the catalyst behind many calls for new faces come January. Yet, as Lampard once again displayed against Burnley, another of those defence-first teams, the Blues are not really in desperate need for any reinforcements, at least for the short-term.

Fans’ concerns mainly stem from two key schools of thought. The first reflects a need to “make up for lost time,” following a summer with no new signings due to the transfer ban. The second, of course, comes from the ever-pressing need to replace Eden Hazard, the man once hailed as the jewel of Chelsea’s crown.

However, the argument that the club needs to make up for lost time following a summer with no transfer activity would be to neglect the fantastic job they have done so far with the limited resources available. The pre-contract arrival of Christian Pulisic and the permanent acquisition of Mateo Kovacic from Real Madrid have both turned out to be great pieces of business by the club.

Moreover, Lampard’s youth experiment has been, without a doubt, a resounding success. Reece James’ man of the match performance against Burnley as well as Tammy Abraham’s 13 goals in the league alone this season are both testament to this.

Together, these factors show how Lampard was still able to freshen up an aging and Hazard-less squad even without a functional transfer window.

As for the argument for replacing Eden Hazard: A man possessing qualities of that level is quite simply irreplaceable, not least in a January transfer window, a notorious time for transfers, considering the extraordinary number of January signings who flopped having arrived as nothing more than gambles out of sheer desperation.

Make no mistake, as poor as Chelsea’s form has been in some parts of this season, the club is in no rush or desperation to run headlong into any signings this window. Most of the long-term targets Chelsea are looking at are not even available at this time of the season, as they remain in contention for various individual accolades while their teams compete for titles and qualifications. Anyone the club rushed into signing would be another of those gambles out of sheer desperation, because that is all that is available.

Statistically, Chelsea remains the third-best side in the league, having underperformed by 4.13 for expected goals (xG) and 4.24 for expected goals against (xGA). Being the only team to have underperformed for both metrics in the top four, Chelsea’s expected points (xPTS) of 41.47 puts them comfortably in third, just ahead of Manchester United at 41.32. Moreover, Leicester City’s simply astounding 9.93 surplus xPTS hints at a team that has been massively overperforming. Should things go Chelsea’s way, the Foxes will be there for the taking come the end of the season.

As things continue to level out as the season goes on, the trends favor the Blues as is. Regression to the mean will elevate Chelsea above their competition.

Fans have no reason to panic should Chelsea not complete any transfers this window. The team clearly seems to be doing well from both a statistical standpoint and in terms of on-pitch performances.

While there can never be a definite guarantee of a top-four finish in the Premier League, Frank Lampard’s Chelsea nonetheless remain in a great place to finish ahead of their key rivals such as Arsenal, Spurs or Manchester United for a Champions League spot come May.