Mateo Kovacic’s stats show why Chelsea count on him to build out play

Mateo Kovacic gives Chelsea an effective and reliable way to move the ball across midfield, either to break the press or launch a counter-attack from a defensive transition. He has the dribbling stats of a forward, but does most of that work on his side of midfield.

Playing out from the back is this year’s self-owning viral challenge, the Tide Pods of global football. Everyone wants to do it because everyone else is doing it, but of course everyone thinks they’ll be one of the ones to pull it off and look good doing it, when the odds are strongly in favour of them being the next epic fail. Chelsea are not too deeply committed to this bandwagon, and are willing to let Kepa Arrizabalaga occasionally hoof one over midfield. They also have a useful alternative in Mateo Kovacic.

Kovacic lets Chelsea bypass the usual amount of passing that goes into and is the major vulnerability of playing out from the back. As WhoScored noted earlier this week, Kovacic has the highest percentage of successful dribbles in the Premier League. He has completed 53 dribbles (seventh-most in the league) for an 84% completion rate. The next best rate among the top 10 dribblers is Adama Traore at 75%.

Unsurprisingly, Kovacic is the most defensively positioned player in the top 10, which includes more expected names like Traore, Wilfried Zaha, Nicolas Pepe, Allan Saint-Maximin and Gerard Deulofeu.

Given the roles those players have in their teams, most of their dribbles come in the final third. Kovacic’s come in the middle third, and most of those on Chelsea’s side of midfield.

In the interests of time, we looked at WhoScored’s numbers and maps for the four games in which Kovacic had the most dribbles. Usefully, for the comparison’s sake, they were two wins and two losses.

Kovacic completed six dribbles in the loss to Everton. All six were in the middle third, with three on each side of the midfield line. In the loss to Manchester City, Kovacic had four dribbles in the Chelsea half and one in the Manchester City half. The Blues’ possession in those two games was 70% and 53%, respectively.

En route to defeating Norwich, Kovacic completed four dribbles in middle third (two on each side of the half) and two in the final third. And against Arsenal, a game Chelsea won in the final 10 minutes, Kovacic had five dribbles, all in the middle third and all on Arsenal’s side of the line. The Blues’ possession was 53% and 58%, respectively.

Given the location of the pitch of these attempted dribbles and the fluid game state, the risks of a turnover are much higher for Mateo Kovacic than his peers in the top 10.

If a forward loses a take-on the final third, his teammates have time to counter-press, re-form their defensive lines and be well along the transition to defense before the opponent reaches the opposite third. If Kovacic loses a tackle in his usual dribbling range, the opponent now has possession within 60 yards of Chelsea’s goal. Chelsea will have less time to set up, especially as they were already transitioning to offence when the turnover happened. Transitions are always a vulnerable time for a team, and having to transition back to defence from a transition to offence leaves a team doubly disorganized and exposed. By the time everyone recognizes what is happening, it can already all be over.

Mateo Kovacic is just as strong in possession as he is in the dribble. He has only been dispossessed in a non-dribble situation 20 times this season, the lowest of any of the top 10 dribblers. This gives him the second-best ratio of successful dribbles to dispossessions: he has 2.65 more dribbles than times when he was dispossessed. Only Wilfried Zaha has a better ratio, and that is due entirely to how many more dribbles he has completed.

The combination of the two stats shows how safe Chelsea are when the ball is at Mateo Kovacic’s feet.

When they are under pressure in their own half, perhaps because an attempt to play out from the back has gone south, Kovacic’s ability to receive, turn and dribble gets the ball past the press and puts Chelsea on the attack. If Kovacic is not able to start that sequence, he is still a safe option as he can maintain possession until his teammates facilitate the new steps.

Playing out from the back should only ever be one option of many (well, really, of two) for getting the ball from the goalkeeper to the midfielders and forwards. The more options a team has for playing out, the more successful they will be when they choose to do it. Mateo Kovacic gives Chelsea a dribbling, central alternative to the usual passes up the flanks through the full-backs, deep-dropping wingers and occasional midfielders.

Mateo Kovacic’s unique skillset have secured his place in the starting XI, and his performances validate his loan and permanent transfer.