Chelsea: How much of all this is really on Kepa Arrizabalaga?

Chelsea’s Kepa Arrizabalaga has good and bad weeks, but how much of the blame for Chelsea’s struggles can really be put on to the Spanish keeper?

Chelsea wanted Alisson. The Blues pushed for most of the 2019 summer window for the keeper but never quite pushed themselves over the line. Liverpool won out and then Thibaut Courtois went AWOL at the last possible moment. With no real choice, Chelsea triggered Kepa Arrizabalaga’s sizable release clause and brought him to the Bridge at the eleventh hour.

There were early warning signs. Arrizabalaga was, statistically, average at best. Time did not do much to change that evaluation. There was the bust up that was and also was not with Maurizio Sarri in the League Cup final. And then this season, Arrizabalaga currently ranks closer to the bottom of nearly every statistical category than he does to the top.

But statistics for keepers are some of the most unique in the game. How much of Arrizabalaga’s numbers are a reflection of the defense in front of him? How much is a reflection of his ability? And can Chelsea really do anything about it at this point?

Chelsea has currently conceded 30 goals with an xGA of 22.3. Theoretically, that means that Chelsea has let in nearly eight more goals than they should be letting in. That comes from one of two sources: a defense giving up quality chances or a keeper letting in easy chances.

When looking at the post shot xG minus goals allowed, Arrizabalaga has a negative 2.9. The implication there is that of those eight goals Chelsea “should not have” let in, Arrizabalaga can be considered responsible for about three of them.

On paper, that does not seem like a whole lot. But compared to other rivals who have more goals conceded than their xGA, Arrizabalaga comes off the worse for wear. Ederson is coming out at positive 0.4 and David De Gea is coming out at about negative 0.3. All three keepers are facing roughly the same xG per shot at about 0.3, so Arrizabalaga is letting in far more than his rivals for about the same type of shots.

Of course, a defense will still effect how much those numbers influence things but it is impossible to deny all the numbers against Arrizabalaga. The eye test mostly gels with the numbers as well as he seems to be slow to react on many shots and rarely comes out to claim any kind of ball in the air.

But the issue is the price tag. Much like Fernando Torres, Chelsea paid a ton for Arrizabalaga and it is very hard to declare that price a sunk cost quickly. It would be nearly impossible for Chelsea to recoup the price they paid on Arrizabalaga and it would be equally difficult to find a truly world class keeper that would not demand a similar price tag.

Unfortunately, that may be a bullet the Blues will have to bite. Statistically, Chelsea is a comfortably top four team. The man between the sticks is more midtable in quality according to the numbers. Chelsea is basically riding luck to stay in top four and not average out into the top six or lower as things stand.

Some have raised the notion of a new keeper, with the names ranging from Gianluigi Donnarumma to Nick Pope to Andre Onana. All three are at least viable options. Even just looking at their saves per 90, and accounting for different teams being under different sorts of pressure, Arrizabalaga comes up last with 1.8 savers per 90. Onana has 2.4 per 90 and Donnarumma and Pope both have three per 90.

The main question is what Chelsea will do considering the price they paid for Arrizabalaga. Will the Blues keep trying like they did with Torres by bringing in new coaches and players to support the one player not living up to the price tag (which in fairness, is not necessarily Arrizabalaga’s fault given the situation Chelsea put themselves in). Or will the Blues take what they can get on the Spaniard and turn to a new option?

There may be no right answer in the short term. But the numbers do not point to this being sustainable if Frank Lampard and Chelsea have higher ambitions than top four and a cup run every season.