Talking tactics: Chelsea, Leicester, and regressing to means

Chelsea travel away to Leicester for a battle of third versus fourth. Both sides have story lines of regressing to means, but who breaks first?

On its face, Chelsea being in fourth with the current squad and two windows of no incoming signings is quite the accomplishment. Occasionally the pundits agree but they have been distracted by another team in blue this season: Leicester.

What Brendan Rodgers has done at Leicester this season is nothing short of fantastic. But they have been over achieving a bit. Recent weeks and months have seen them get closer to the Earth but that does not mean they are not incredibly dangerous for the vast majority of Premier League teams.

Frank Lampard has meanwhile seen his side fall on the other side of the margin in about the same time span. The Blues are under performing many of their metrics with little sign of turning it around soon. This match is very much a battle of Leicester staying above water and Chelsea trying to find their way back to the surface.

Rodgers is unafraid of changing the formation up to counter opponents but for the most part they have used a 4-1-4-1 or 4-3-3 formation. Not too dissimilar to Chelsea (both in terms of formation and overall), Leicester look to maintain possession and use the wide players’ rotations to cause havoc.

Rodgers and Lampard are stylistically similar. A high press sees the side try to win the ball back quickly and the attack is often direct and quick. Perhaps Leicester, overall, has a better squad suited to that style but man to man in a normal season, Chelsea has the advantage.

But this season is not normal and Leicester is flying high. Not nearly as much as they had been previously, but then again neither is Chelsea. This will be a game of fine margins with both sides desperate to win through their respective injury issues.

Last time, Jamie Vardy and company wreaked havoc by exploiting Chelsea’s high line while allowing the Blues to have possession more than Leicester would normally allow an opponent. This is one of Rodger’s favorite twists and one he is likely to employ against Chelsea.

Vardy is supposedly not fit enough to start but that should not make Chelsea feel too comfortable. Despite coming back to Earth, Leicester is more than capable of causing the Blues the issues they struggle most with. And unlike many of the teams the Blues face in a deep defensive block, Leicester has the skill and speed to break out and make every counter dangerous.

Much of this match will depend on the attack rotating with one another, something that happens when Chelsea is at their best but something that has been rare in recent weeks. This match is winnable but the Blues cannot play with the intensity they have been playing with.

Lampard is already a frustrated man both on and off the pitch. He needs his side to give him something to smile about before things really get going this month.