The best football around has returned to Stamford Bridge, as Chelsea start their first Champions League knockout stage under Frank Lampard against Bayern Munich. The odds and the action show the betting public has more confidence in the Blues than many fans.
Bayern Munich has been stellar so far this Champions League season. They have not lost a match yet in this campaign, outscoring their group stage opponents 24-5. That goal differential included a 7-2 win against Tottenham Hotspur in London.
Leading Bayern on offence and leading the Champions League in goals is Robert Lewandowski, who has been unstoppable again this season. He has scored 10 goals in the Champions League, and a whopping 25 in the Bundesliga with only 23 matches played. You read that right. Lewandowski is so good and such a large part of Bayern Munich’s success that if Chelsea can manage to keep him off the scoresheet, they stand a chance of advancing. And if that happened, I would take back all my negativity about our weak defense.
The Action Network has Bayern at only -127 on the money line, which is a bit surprising with Chelsea’s home form this season. If you think the Blues have a chance, then you’re going to be very happy with the +315 for them to win, but not happy if you planned to take the spread which is only -.5.
The betting public is betting Bayern win and the line is currently saying that Bayern wins, but not in a really convincing fashion: likely low scoring, with neither side taking many risks. Bayern could get an early goal then sit on their lead and pass the ball around.
The total goals scored is at three, with the majority of bets on the under. For this reason, I like the low scoring match. You go in expecting the game to be high scoring, and then the odds are the exact opposite.
In the group stages, Bayern Munich only had one game with fewer than three goals: a 2-0 win at home against Olympiacos. Their two largest wins both came on the road – the win at Spurs and 6-0 at Red Star Belgrade. Chelsea, as we know, did better away from Stamford Bridge in the group stages. They had one loss, one draw and one win at home, but two wins and a draw away.
The Blues will have to show up with a very inspired effort and raise their level of play if they expect to have a chance of being in the second match at the Allianz Arena when it comes around. The good news for the Blues is that Tammy Abraham is available, and he is their most consistent scorer, even if he only has two in the Champions League, the same amount as Cesar Azpilicueta and Jorginho.
Given all the numbers and how off they seem, Bayern gets the victory by one goal – the all important away goal – with three or fewer goals scored in the match.