Chelsea cannot expect to win titles by scoring more than their opponents, whatever that may entail. League champions require a champion-level defence.
“Attack wins you games, defense wins you titles.” – Sir Alex Ferguson. This quote does not just represent logical fact, it is backed by statistical data. The quote itself is not as straightforward as it seems. Ferguson is not saying that the best defense in any competition would be crowned champions. He is saying that for teams that want to win trophies, they cannot afford to be careless at the back. In fact, they cannot afford to be less than very good defensively.
In Europe’s top five leagues over the past 10 seasons, on only six occasions – out of 50 – have the league champions ranked lower than second defensively.
These include Chelsea in the 2016/17 season (3rd), Manchester United in 2012/13 (5th), FC Barcelona in 2018/19 (3rd), Real Madrid in 2016/17 (4th), Borussia Dortmund in 2011/12 (3rd) and Paris Saint-Germain in 2014/15 (4th). All the other champions in the Premier League, Bundesliga, Serie A, La Liga and Ligue 1 have ranked in the top two defensively.
This shows that champions focus on scoring many goals and equally focus on conceding so few.
Frank Lampard has moaned consistently about not finishing chances. He is not wrong. Chelsea should finish their chances. However, Chelsea’s problem this season has not come from what they are not doing offensively. Rather it has been brought to the fore by what they are not doing defensively. It is disputable, yes, but it’s actually not.
Lampard has done a good job so far as Chelsea’s head coach given the circumstances, personal and external. However, Lampard no doubt came to Chelsea to win trophies in a managerial role. He cannot do that with the Blues’ current defensive performances. It does not help the narrative that his two teams have not been notable for being defensively solid.
It is widely believed that Lampard is trying to implement a score-more-than-your-opposition idea. While that is probably not true, it had better not be.
Going into a game with the mindset of outscoring your opposition no matter how many goals that requires is silly. It cannot work. It is unsustainable because you do not have much control over how many goals you score. Teams do, however, have control over how many goals they concede.
Trying to outscore the opponent through total offence will ensure a team never challenges for the Premier League title. You must be as good defensively as you are offensively to challenge for titles at the top level.
If a team wins 4-2 or 4-3 against a relegation fodder team, they have just conceded three goals to a relegation fodder team. You can imagine how many they will concede against a better, much more organized and much more clinical team. What’s more? The next time they concede three goals, they may not score any.
Ferguson’s statement refers to defensive decisiveness across the whole competition. At the end of the season every goal-line clearance, last man tackle, and reflex save by the goalkeeper to preserve a decisive win reveal their significance.
The goals a team concedes when winning 5-1 look insignificant and, for the most part, they are. But the goals teams concede when losing 0-1 or drawing 1-1 suddenly look heavier. The most important game in the season may not be the one where you win 4-1 or 6-1. It may be the 1-0 win.
In the 2018/19 Premier League season, Manchester City conceded one more goal than Liverpool, and ended up with one more point than Liverpool, winning the league with that point. Manchester City won their 37th game of the season 1-0 against Leicester City. Had they drawn that match 1-1, which they nearly did, they would have entered the final day of the season not having control of their destiny.
This can be applied to countless other matches in countless other seasons. If you find it difficult to score in a match, double up on trying not to concede. Those goals in seemingly harmless matches have a way of looking way more important in the long run.
Chelsea has gone several matches this season without scoring, but have gone ahead only to concede very avoidable goals in the same match.
Of the teams that occupy European spots in the league table, Chelsea has conceded more than any other.
Going forward, Lampard and Chelsea need to put more effort and focus into defending than they have been. If Chelsea wants trophies, they cannot afford to be investing all their money in attacking.
Liverpool were trying to “outscore” their opponents and were hovering around 4th – 5th until they bought Virgil van Dijk and Alisson Becker. Now they’re hovering around 1st – 2nd. The numbers don’t lie.
So no, score-more-than-your-opponent is not a tactic that is wise, not for what Lampard is trying to achieve.