Tactics and Transfers: A philosophy for the summer’s business

With football now certain to resume, that means the other—and perhaps most interesting part of football—will resume as well.  The transfer market.

Coronavirus has had an incredible impact on football. The size of which we are unlikely to fully understand for several years, if ever given a look into the rather shady underbelly of the world of football finances. The things that we do know, however, are that UEFA will be loosening the restrictions around financial fair play and that some clubs are better suited to the new world because of their pre-COVID attitudes towards spending.

What people shouldn’t expect is for things to be too crazy during this time, as an overarching sense of conservatism will likely win the day. They also shouldn’t expect the loosening of FFP to be something drastic. As things stand, clubs need to show a reasonable ability to pay off the amortized value of their players within a rolling three-year period.  Reasonable ability to pay this off is determined like this: Clubs can’t—in that time—exceed spending more than €5 million worth over their overall income (not profit). They are allowed to carry a debt load of up to €45 million during that time if they have a benefactor or member who shows the ability to cover the amount without the club going into administration.

Overall, we shouldn’t expect these rules to change too much.  The loosening will likely be in regards to clubs spending exceeding their earnings by a slightly larger amount. Let’s say from €5 million to €25 million. Further, the three-year rolling period possibly extended then to five years.

Chelsea’s turnover for the calendar year of 2019 was £446 million. Clubs will likely be able to use the numbers from the last uninterrupted filing period, so that’s the number we will as well. Thus, we’ll take note of the £280 million Chelsea spent in transfer fees that season as a benchmark. In addition, we’ll add in the sales my colleague Ishan’s suggestions on who should be moved on as an example of player sales. I’m going to suggest that number is around £120 million, given the fact that no one is going to be paying top dollar this summer.  So, while Chelsea will be able to get good deals, they’ll also have to give them.

We’ll also need to account for the roughly £150 million the Blues made in transfer fees before the transfer ban. This would then put Chelsea at £550 million available to spend. That being unlikely though, we’ll halve it to account for taxes and a desire to keep some money in the bank. That puts Chelsea at £275 million and we’ll subtract Ziyech’s fee in the name of good measure. Thus giving the Blues a solid £243 million to spend.

It’s also important to acknowledge that with the incoming rules that are going to be changed for loans, Chelsea will simply need to thin the herd a great deal. The squad is going to be far too large and Chelsea won’t want to bring in many more players.

The target then becomes quality and impact, as well as balance.

To get the most out of the money, Chelsea should absolutely target clubs who are in dire need. AC Milan, Barcelona, Atletico Madrid, Roma, Bayer Leverkusen and Inter Milan are all sides with huge debt burdens who are going to be vulnerable during this period. Then there are other clubs who are being made to struggle by the rules of their domestic leagues. For instance, Lyon, who were in great form before COVID. Now, the club has had its season canceled and now sits in a lowly seventh, outside the Champions League places. Lyon won’t be able to afford its stars as easily, should they even be willing to stay.

Chelsea needs a new left back, a centerback of some repute, another winger wouldn’t hurt and a back-up—or even frankly starting striker to really push Tammy.

The Blues won’t buy all of these because some will be filled by returning loan players and other positions simply need more time to work. For instance, with the return of Ethan Ampadu, as well as Fikayo Tomori, Kurt Zouma and Andreas Christensen, Chelsea is in a good place for centerbacks.

Chelsea can’t buy a goalkeeper as the Arrizabalaga situation still simply needs more time to pan out. Doing so would hurt the side even more by immediately injecting even more indecision and controversy into things. For what it’s worth, I believe Arrizabalaga will come good. That said, a stable defence and coaching situation in front of him for a period will help that happen. As of now, he’s been tested in rather unfair circumstances.

The sort of players that Chelsea should be targeting are the kind who can contribute immediately, as well as grow in the future. These are players such as Kai Havertz, Nicolo Zaniolo, Eduardo Camavinga and Jadon Sancho. In fact, adding all four would be something of a coup.

The side simply has to add a left-back, someone like Alex Telles on the right deal would be perfect. David Alaba would be as well. If Leicester can be convinced to settle for a reasonable sum and not the ridiculous £70 million that has been suggested for Chilwell, he would work too.

So, the truth is, there are many options for the Blues when the transfer window opens and they’ll need to do a lot of work. Years of instability have left the half images of three to four different managers’ sides in the squad and yet somehow, Chelsea doesn’t have one single cohesive one. There are great deals to be had on the sort of players the Blues ordinarily could not afford and those should be taken advantage of.

Chelsea could even go so far as purchasing several players and loaning them back to their original sides for a year or even two. It would allow the Blues more time to filter through the players at home, while also planning for the future and getting the best deals humanly possible for players coming into the side.

I’m on the record suggesting that Chelsea should take another year of development and squad thinning to heart. They must. That said, adding Jadon Sancho this summer and then agreeing to deals with Leverkusen and Roma for loan backs for Havertz and Zaniolo for one and two years respectively (especially given Zaniolo’s injury and the benefit of regaining his comfort at home) would be a fantastic piece of opportunistic business. The same could be done with Camavinga from Rennes while Chelsea observes just how much is left in N’Golo Kante while also securing a generational player to replace him. Finally, a deal to add Moussa Dembele from Lyon with some extra for first rights on Cherki in the future would be a great deal, as well.

Inter and AC Milan should be talked to about the possibilities of Gianluigi Donnarumma, Alessio Romagnoli, Milan Skriniar and Lautaro Martinez. If the deal is made for the right fee and the right balance creatively for everyone, then why not? Similar phone calls should be made to Atletico Madrid in regards to Jan Oblak, Lucas Hernandez, and Joao Felix. I’m not suggesting every single player named in this article Chelsea actually buy, but these are the names that may suddenly be available where they once were not and thus, necessitate interest due to their quality and would-be impact on the team.

For instance, should Arrizabalaga not work out, Donnarumma would be one of the best choices to replace him. Milan is having trouble affording his salary at the moment, so why not sign him and loan him back for two seasons? Milan get to keep him a little longer and he can mature in Italy. Arrizabalaga is given an honest and fair time to see if he can reach his potential without immediate pressure. Then if Arrizabalaga turns out to be the world-beater he can be, Chelsea has gotten a great deal with Donnarumma and can flip him for a profit in two years without ever having had him in London anyway. Why not?

That’s the way that the club should be thinking—creatively and practically all at the same time. That will be the approach that gives Chelsea a solid foothold at the summit of European football for the next 15 years.

The Blues need to find a way to benefit from the situation, while also not messing with the health of the squad too much. Too many players in this summer is a bad move for the Blues. The squad needs to have more deadwood cut out of it before more is added, but at the same time, deals will not be available like this again in our lifetimes and should be taken advantage of.

The past five years of smart dealmaking and spending have set Chelsea up well to make the most out of this it would be a shame for them not to capitalize fully.