Chelsea: How many youth does it take to call it a successful revolution?

Chelsea’s youth revolution has been in full swing this season, but how many need to stick in with the first team next season to call it successful?

Frank Lampard came in with a mandate to utilize the youth academy like no other Chelsea manager in recent times has really done. He immediately went about doing so and he has given 11 current or former academy players under the age of 23 time on the field this season. Of those 11, 5 have over 1000 minutes played: Callum Hudson-Odoi, Reece James, Mason Mount, Fikayo Tomori, and Tammy Abraham. A sixth, Billy Gilmour, was very much part of the first team when play halted and he has been prevalent in every set of training pictures as of late.

That, however, is only one half of a youth revolution. The second step is maintaining that place in the squad at either the same level or an increasing one. And while it at first seemed as if Chelsea planned on doing just that, the latest transfers and rumors begin to raise doubts about it.

Hakim Ziyech will be joining. Timo Werner is expected to join. Kai Havertz is the latest in the rumor mill but everything seems possible for Chelsea right now. If they do join, that puts the squeeze on certain positions. And the Blues would not likely stop there given their current momentum. That will affect the youth and their minutes. So the question becomes, what makes the youth revolution successful now?

Abraham is under the most threat at the moment. While it can be expected that he will play alongside Werner (if he signs) up top or one on the wing, it is not a guarantee. That becomes especially true if Havertz is thrown into the mix. It would be shocking to see Chelsea get three attackers and not start them all. Someone, either Christian Pulisic or Abraham, would need to make way. Abraham has supposedly been sitting on a new contract for a while now and this surely will play into his negotiations.

Hudson-Odoi and Mount will also be looking at themselves as, even without Havertz, their position on the pitch is pretty much taken already. Both can offer different things than Ziyech or Werner (again, if he joins) but it is clear as to which pair of players will be on the pitch. Hudson-Odoi was already a touch and go player after Maurizio Sarri’s season and Mount, despite being key to Lampard’s tactics in his first two seasons, will suddenly find himself on the outside looking in.

Tomori does not even face transfer rumors currently but his place is already lost it seems. Roughly since New Year’s, when he got ill, he has been out of the side. There is certainly more to the story, but his disappearance after his season up to that point is extremely surprising.

Gilmour has not technically “broken through” if 1000 minutes is used as the cutoff point, but he will find things harder next season when Ziyech and (maybe) Werner are at the club. Havertz added on top would guarantee a loan for the young Scotsman unless players are moved out of midfield. He has certainly passed the eye test thus far so it would be a shame to see him play elsewhere, even on loan, next season.

Reece James is the only one of this group that seemingly has no fear. Statistically he is a monster and, despite some youth inspired errors here and there, he looks to be the polished product. Cesar Azpilicueta can play in other positions as well as in James’ stead when the latter needs a break. Unless the rumors shift, James seems secure.

But again, what makes a youth revolution successful? It cannot be just one season of trusting them. But then, how many players does it take to stick in the team to make it a success?

At most clubs that bring youth through into the first team, the answer usually lingers around one or two. Chelsea has five, maybe six, from this season who will be fighting to make that cut for next season. Currently, it appears James is the best bet for one. If no other attacking signings occur, Abraham is another good one. But everyone else? They will either see reduced playing time or they will see themselves elsewhere.

It is the harsh reality of a game that only involves a starting XI. If the five substitute rule and the larger bench allowance both stick, things could be different. But most of the youth will be looking back on this season as a success while wondering what their place is in the future for Lampard’s Chelsea.