Many fans have turned their attention towards Chelsea bringing in a new defender. The stats show it is less of a defensive issue and more of a keeper one.
Stats are not the be all end all of the sport. They have to be kept in context and they have to go hand in hand with “the eye test”. One should never exist without the other. That being said, looking at the numbers can reveal things that the eye misses and that can be incredibly important in the development of a club.
Fans want the Blues to turn their attention towards new defenders, even if many also want the likes of Kai Havertz to join. But, on paper at least, Chelsea’s defense is not really an issue. According to expected numbers, the Blues hold their own just off of Manchester City and Liverpool in most cases.
The one place where that is not true, however, is the keeper stats. So while it may seem as though Chelsea’s defense is incredibly leaky and mistake prone (which according to the eye test, they look it), the real issue may lie between the sticks. A better keeper, on par with Ederson and Allisson, may make the difference for the Blues at the back more than any new center back, full back, or tactical set up.
Chelsea should, per expected stats, have the league’s fourth best defense. Reality has them in eleventh, with a whopping 12.5 more goals scored against them than should have been. When it comes to pressure, only two teams (Liverpool and Manchester City, a running theme) do better than the Blues percentage wise. Chelsea tackles the fourth highest percentage of players trying to dribble with the fourth most tackles won overall. The club sits fifth when looking at the total amount of players that actually break through with a dribble. As for interceptions, only Bournemouth outshines Chelsea. The Blues also have allowed the third least amount of shots on target.
So overall, it appears as though Chelsea’s defense is just fine. The press and the containment after the press both seem to be working, albeit not on the level of Manchester City or Liverpool’s overall. Which brings the attention to the keeper position.
Where do the Blues sit on save percentage? Dead last by a decent margin. Post shot expected goals if the shot was on target? Dead last again.
Now look at those stats all combined. Chelsea has a defense that is, on paper at least, third best in the league in almost every category. They have keeper stats that are dead last. Worse than Aston Villa, Norwich, Everton and literally every other club in the league. Does a new defender fix that?
A new defender can improve Chelsea, of course, but it would not be enough to catch Manchester City or Liverpool. The true gap the Blues face at the moment is the one between the sticks. Kepa Arrizabalaga had promise, but he is failing well enough that the Blues have to consider a new keeper in the summer.
Andre Onana would be the cheap, long term option and the Blues could probably swing keeping Arrizabalaga around at the same time for the sake of “competition”. Jan Oblak would be the break the bank, the club wants to win it all right now option that would last for a shorter time, but would immediately push Arrizabalaga out of the side (if not out of the club entirely).
Whatever the Blues decide, it seems clear that a keeper is a better use of resources than a defender. The Chelsea defenders are overall good, though admittedly not great. A new, amazing keeper, could be all that is needed to elevate not only the defense to greatness, but the entire team.