Jan Oblak is without a doubt the world’s best keeper. Chelsea, however, should steer clear if they are paying attention to how that came about.
Jan Oblak is the world’s best keeper. Alisson and Marc-Andre ter Stegen have a shout. Manuel Neuer and David De Gea could both attempt to claim the crown once, but both have faded. But Oblak stands above them all regardless.
The tricky thing about keepers, however, is that they are very much influenced by the system and players in front of them. Almost anyone can look at an outfielder and tell whether they are good or not and why, but for a keeper, so much of that is based on the team’s style of play. Does the team press high or defend low? Are the defenders in front of the keeper solid or are they slapstick? Does the keeper need to be a key point of possession or can he just do normal keeper things? All of these play into whether or not a keeper is good or not.
Oblak is again linked to Chelsea, not that the rumor ever really went away. The Blues want to buy an experienced keeper and they seemingly do not want to take another risk like they did with Kepa Arrizabalaga. Oblak has not denied these links but the Blues need to take a step back and understand that just because Oblak is the best in the world does not mean he would be the best choice for Chelsea.
Loop back to what makes a keeper, in this case Oblak, good. Oblak has played in one of the best defensive teams in the world of the last decade. Atletico Madrid and Diego Simeone are synonymous with being nearly impossible to break down. So what does that mean for Oblak?
A very good defense, especially one that defends low, allows the opponents worse chances. If Atletico Madrid is only allowing very difficult chances through, then the keeper, regardless of their ability, should be expected to save it. Oblak’s high save percentages over the years are very much a product of his defense protecting him. That is not to say that he is also not very good (he is), but what he has to work with cannot be ignored.
Now look at Chelsea. Do the Blues really strike anyone as a good defensive side after last season? The days of Jose Mourinho and “1-0 Chelsea” are long gone. The real question to ask is whether or not Oblak, going from one of the best defenses in the world, would be the same keeper with a porous line in front of him. It is extremely difficult to say for certain he would.
Oblak would be a gamble then. Chelsea took a £70 million gamble on Kepa Arrizabalaga and it failed. Would a £108 million gamble to come good on the first gamble really be smart?
The answer has to be no. The Blues need to be looking for a keeper who has good stats and plays in a system more similar to Chelsea. That would be a much safer and smarter bet than dropping a truck ton on Oblak just because he is the world’s best.
The solution here seems to be Andre Onana who is priced extremely low given his quality. The Blues already have a good relationship with Ajax and the deal makes far too much sense to pass up. The only reason the club seems hesitant is because he is not seen as a sure bet. Onana is still young and developing, not unlike Arrizabalaga. Even at a cheap price, Chelsea may be once bitten, twice shy after their last keeper deal.
Even still, the club has to acknowledge that while Oblak seems like the safest option, the system that he performs in is much different than the system Chelsea performs in. There is no guarantee that his skillset can or cannot translate, but that is far too expensive of a risk for the Blues to take as the war chest runs low.