Chelsea: What should Blues fans expect from Ben Chilwell?

Ben Chilwell’s highly anticipated signing was one of the most exciting events for Chelsea fans in recent memory, but what should we expect of him?

Ben Chilwell’s £50m signing is perhaps one of the worst kept secrets in this summer transfer window. Reports back in December made it abundantly clear that the 23-year-old was Frank Lampard’s No. 1 target at left back and that remained true. However, the subsequent discussions as to whether or not the Englishman is indeed the right man to make up for Chelsea’s deficiency at left back have turned up a less than obvious answer amongst Chelsea fans. This article hence serves as a means of exploring the underlying numbers behind Chelsea’s latest acquisition—highlighting both his strengths and weaknesses—thereby allowing fans to form a clearer picture of what they can expect from Chilwell.

First, on Chilwell’s strengths as a player as well as what his acquisition brings to the team. The 23-year-old’s greatest trait and perhaps one of the main reasons why Lampard wanted to bring him to Stamford Bridge so badly has to be his aerial presence—both in open play as well as in dead-ball situations.

Chilwell’s ability to win aerial duels sees him come in with high scores of 93 (out of 99) for both metrics, winning 58.5 percent of his aerial battles. For context, Marcos Alonso, long famed for his aerial presence, comes in with a score of 96 and 40 respectively. What this means is that as good as Alonso is in dealing with long balls from open play, the Spaniard actually struggles greatly in attacking the ball when it is delivered into the box either from an offensive or defensive setting. Considering just how much Chelsea has been struggling from set pieces last season, Chilwell’s addition here could prove decisive in solving the team’s Achilles’ heel.

Moreover, Chilwell’s overall defensive quantity also outshines that of Chelsea’s incumbent left back at 85 to 49. Although this could be largely down to the differences in play style of Leicester City and Chelsea, Chilwell’s overall defensive quality also sees him come out on top at 60 to 55. This would suggest that on a purely defensive level, Chilwell’s ability—in the context of the general quality of defending from Premier League left backs—is better than what Alonso offers the team.

In addition to his strengths at the back, Chilwell’s attacking output last season is actually very comparable with Marcos Alonso, with both players 92 rated in this regard. This season has seen England’s starting left back rack up a respectable three goals and three assists, almost identical with Marcos Alonso’s four goals and two assists albeit in almost double the number of minutes played. This, coupled with the fact that the Englishman boasts a respectable 80-rated dribbling and 80-rated link-up play, would mean that at the end of the day Chilwell comes out as a well-rounded fullback who is balanced both on the front and back foot.

Where Chilwell struggles, however, would be his extremely poor returns when it comes to ground duels. Coming in with a rating of 19 for ground duels when his team is out of position, it is evident that the Englishman struggles when sliding in for challenges or simply putting in a tackle. In this respect, Marcos Alonso’s 76 rating would imply that the 29-year-old outperforms Chilwell greatly in this regard. Moreover, in replacing the Spaniard with Chilwell, Chelsea is also losing out on the former’s frankly incredibly 99-rated abilities in shooting; as well as receiving the ball in the box when compared to the Premier League’s other left backs.

Overall, the current statistics and comparison metrics would suggest that while Chilwell is largely the more well-rounded fullback, the Englishman still has some ground to cover in an attacking sense to even come close to matching Alonso’s attacking output. His underlying numbers of 0.11 xG and 0.13 xA, when compared to Alonso’s 0.25 and 0.19 respectively, serves to further illustrate the gulf between the two when in the attack.

Nonetheless, some context here has to be taken into account. For one, Marcos Alonso plays more as a left wing-back which gives him greater license to link up with the attack in a 3-4-3 system. With the quality of pure attacking players coming into the club this summer, however, there is also a case to be had that the attacking contributions a fullback offers would be of a far lesser value in relation to the level of defensive solidity that they can add to the team. In this regard, Chilwell actually has a way stronger case to be Chelsea’s first-choice left back considering his already solid defensive output—winning 63.4 percent of his overall defensive duels—on top of his ability and willingness to press the opponents when off the ball.

Ultimately, at 23 and 29 respectively, Chilwell and Alonso are on opposing ends of their footballing careers. Tracking Chilwell’s career progression thus far holds a great promise of what kind of player he could yet develop into. Since the beginning of the 2017/18 season, Chilwell’s first full season as a starter, his npxG+xA has steadily increased from 0.11 to 0.17.

With still so much time on his side to develop into the player both Ashley Cole and Lampard clearly thinks he could be, Chilwell will undoubtedly prove to be a hugely successful player at Stamford Bridge in the time to come.