Chelsea’s Edouard Mendy is a stop gap, not a long term solution

Edouard Mendy has had a good start to his Chelsea career, but at 28, the Senegalese international might prove to be nothing more than a stop gap in goal.

There are few days where Chelsea fans do not complain about the money spent on Kepa Arrizabalaga, especially since a fraction of that was spent on Edouard Mendy this summer, and the former Rennes goalkeeper appears to be better between the posts already.

However, there is not enough of a sample size for a direct comparison of Mendy to Arrizabalaga in the Premier League to be made so quickly. Furthermore, no matter what you think of Arrizabalaga, the notable defensive acquisitions made after the hapless defensive show of last year would help any goalkeeper.

Critics will point to the fact that the Spaniard still conceded three goals against Southampton but before you lift up the drawbridge to “Arrizabalaga Island”, first consider how those goals were scored.

A one-on-one with Danny Ings, after Kai Havertz’s Premier League inexperience resulted in him losing the ball in a dangerous area, almost always ends the same no matter the goalie. An awful Kurt Zouma back pass that conjures up memories of schoolboy games in the park, and a deflected, glancing header with a box full of congestion.

Still, on the face of it, it doesn’t look good for Arrizabalaga, and so much has been made of the underlying stats that don’t absolve him either.

Chelsea and Frank Lampard were right to bring Mendy in and he has brought calm to an uneasy defense. That being said, the arrival of Mendy did not bring the fanfare a Jan Oblak signing would, nor did it bring the same attention or commiseration by opposing teams that the signing of Alisson to Liverpool or Ederson to Manchester City did.

When Liverpool and City brought their two undisputed No. 1’s to the club, not only were the supporters full of praise for bringing in a world class keeper, but rival fans begrudgingly complimented the business.

Liverpool was a good team but weak in goal and when Alisson joined, they instantly became title contenders. Can the same really be said of Mendy? Chelsea fans were excited about Mendy not so much because of his name or pedigree but because he wasn’t Kepa Arrizabalaga.

Now Blues fans have been singing the praises of Mendy after his first performances, especially after the Champions League game against Sevilla where the 6’ 4” goalkeeper kept the Blues in the game. Yet that feels more like relief Mendy seems to be better than Arrizabalaga rather than expectation that comes with a “world class” tag.

Those underlying stats that are so unkind to Arrizabalaga actually show that Mendy isn’t all that far behind Alisson and Ederson. It is important to note that the quality of the French Ligue 1 is widely considered to less than that of the Premier League, however the telling PSxG+/- stat paints an interesting comparison.

Firstly, PSxG+/- stands for Post Shot Expected Goals Minus Goals Allowed which effectively means how likely is it for the ball to go into the net after the shot has been taken. The number that comes out the other side is that equation minus how many goals were actually allowed, so a higher number indicates either more luck or a better, or above average, shot stopping ability.

Much has been made of the fact that in the 2019/20 season, Kepa Arrizabalaga’s PSxG+/- was a staggering -9.5.

In the same 2019/20 season, Alisson’s was +0.6, while Ederson’s was an impressive +2.5. All of this means that Arrizabalaga conceded 9.5 times more goals that he was expected to, while Alisson and Ederson stopped 0.6 and 2.5 times, respectively, more shots than there were expected to.

Over in Ligue 1, Mendy’s PSxG+/- was +1.7. That number would leave Mendy in and around the middle of the pack in the Premier League in 2019/20.

Another indicator that Mendy perhaps isn’t as far away from Alisson or Ederson is his passing, while it is not a primary role of his, Chelsea’s tendency to pass out from the back and bring the goalkeeper into play makes it an important statistic nonetheless.

Mendy has the highest completion rate of passes over 40 yards in distance. It is worth noting that Kepa Arrizabalaga’s passing accuracy in his first year at Chelsea was 55.9 so it isn’t not too far-fetched to think that dramatic drop off was partly to do with the rest of his game and lack of confidence.

Yet the stats don’t lie, Mendy is seemingly closer to Alisson and Ederson that it first appears, but once again it must be stressed to compare the three is hard due to the fact that Mendy was playing in France.

Petr Cech had reportedly heard of and been keeping tabs on Mendy for quite some time in the lead up to the Blues signing him so the Blues obviously got the goalkeeper they wanted. Still, one can cannot help but think this is not a final, ultimate solution for the Blues.

Mendy is 28 and with the rumors linking 21-year-old Italian goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma and Chelsea not going away, Mendy might just prove to be that stop gap that allows the Blues to sell Kepa Arrizabalaga before they move for Donnarumma.

A more than capable stop gap according to those underlying stats above, but still, a stop gap. Frank Lampard knew he had to spend on a goalkeeper as Arrizabalaga between the sticks for another season could spell disaster for Lampard, but Mendy does not fit within the mold it seems Lampard is looking for.

Teams like Chelsea need a stable force in the back, as exemplified by the Blues former keepers Petr Cech and Thibaut Courtois. They were young and talented and held up as the future of goalkeeping at Stamford Bridge for many years to come. Chelsea have always looked to sign a goalkeeper for a long-term stint at the club

That was seemingly the idea with Arrizabalaga. In a few years, when Mendy is the wrong side of 30 will he be able to command the area in the same way? Long term and 28-years-old contradict each other.

There is every chance that Edouard Mendy excels in the Premier League, but goalkeeping is a notoriously hard position to predict unless they are truly world class keepers in the form of Cech, Neuer, Buffon and few others. Kepa Arrizabalaga is the prime example of how difficult this is.

Gianluigi Donnarumma might just be in the former group, with youth and experience still on his side, whereas for Mendy to become world class only two years out from his 30th birthday defies logic. It’s possible, but is it plausible?

Will Mendy transform the Blues into title winning contenders? Perhaps. Certainly, Chelsea were not the complete teams that Liverpool or Man City were when they brought in their keepers so his work is cut out for him to make the Blues title contenders.

It may sound harsh to judge him so early in his Chelsea career, and yes, there is a very small sample size at this moment, but he is no Alisson or Ederson.

For now, Blues fans can sleep easy knowing that Edouard Mendy, not Kepa Arrizabalaga, is the starter between the posts. To paint him as the savior of this Chelsea backline however is foolish for Mendy might just prove to be the best bridge between this still gelling Lampard team and its next, truly world class keeper.