Chelsea rebounded from a rough start, but winter is the true test

Chelsea has done well to rebound from a rough start, but the winter slog of matches will be the true test for this team this season.

In a normal season, teams tend to find their feet around late September/early October. They go and go until about the second week of December. At that point, fatigue begins to set in just as the schedule becomes pretty insane. The first respite from the winter slog is usually late February or early March, and by then the season is pretty settled and title races and relegation battles are clear.

This isn’t a normal season. The work load normally associated with that December-February period is now all season. Teams like Chelsea have been going again and again from September till now like they would in that winter slog. Oh, and there is still a winter slog on top of that afterwards.

The winter slog generally separates the wheat from the chaff. That won’t change even in this weird season, but the magnitude of it will surely increase. Chelsea has done very well to rebound from a rough start to the season, but their true test will be how they survive the winter slog and where they stand afterwards.

Some managers are quite good at managing this high work load, or rather, they have squads large enough to do so. It is still too early to say for sure how Frank Lampard does with it, but last season winter proved difficult for him and his Blues.

From the October international break to the November international break (when teams should be settled), Chelsea won five matches, drew once (the Ajax 4-4), and lost once (to Manchester United). During the winter slog last season? Seven wins, three draws, and four losses. On paper, that might not look terrible and obviously that is a sample size difference, but that is a drop from a 71 percent win percentage to 50 percent.

The main issue this season is that the work load is so much heavier before winter and the fatigue will already very much be there at the worst time of the season. Teams would have been aware of this before the season started but there is only so much planning that can be done to cope.

Of course, the teams that come out of the winter the best are the ones that have the biggest squads. They can rotate tired players in and out without risking matches. Manchester City and Liverpool stood alone with that in recent seasons but Chelsea made great strides to close that depth gap over the summer.

But that really only matters if Frank Lampard rotates which he has done less and less this season. Partnerships have to be developed between players and that requires playing time, but as things stand, Chelsea is approaching the winter break with some that have gone five, six, or seven matches in a row. Another international break with three matches will surely increase that load on many. Furthermore, match fitness is a real thing and a lack of rotation makes it harder for players to just come in and pick up the slack when needed.

The test for Frank Lampard and Chelsea will be getting out of the winter the way they went into it. That will require the full squad to be used by Lampard. It means the players with limited opportunities will need to stand up and be counted whenever their number is called.

There is no title race, top four race, relegation battle, or midtable nothingness right now. After the winter there will be. Chelsea needs to ensure they come out of the cold where they want to be.