A recent drop in form has seen a stat come up about how Chelsea has struggled against the top 10. The wider the window, the more wrong that is.
After Chelsea lost to Everton and Wolverhampton, the 17 match undefeated run was completely forgotten. Out of the woodwork came a stat about Chelsea failing to win against any top 10 side this season. Where that stat was during the winning run remains a topic for another day. It was snapped by beating West Ham, but how true was it really?
There is a famous quote that there are lies, damn lies, and statistics. Statistics are, on paper, fact. But they are also narrative. The narrower one makes a stat to make it “true”, the more of a narrative it is. That is about where the top 10 stat sits.
See, the stat was true only when looking at the current top 10. So what if a team was 11th when the stat was made? Doesn’t count. This stat was often combined by naysayers to include Chelsea having less points now than they did at the same point last season. Again, this is accurate but it is a fact viewed through a very narrow window. The wider that window, the more information that is included, the harder it is to justify.
Let’s start with the top 10 stat. Doesn’t it make more sense to look at whether a side was in top 10 when Chelsea beat them rather than look back from MD13? Using that, Crystal Palace was sixth when they got beaten, long before West Ham. But what about top 10 last season? Surely using 38 games is better than using a third of a season. Using that, Burnley and Sheffield United are looped in.
As for the second stat about points earned at this point in the season, it is true that Chelsea has one point less now than they did after MD14 last year. Of course, that is with a very different set of opponents. Looking at the same opponents, Chelsea has seven more points from the same fixtures as last season. That does not include promoted/relegated teams because it wouldn’t be even, but last season Chelsea had four wins, a draw, and a loss to the relegated sides. This season it is a win and a draw so nothing to wave a flag at yet.
But every league is separate from another so perhaps the only real thing to look at is the current table. No, not the place but the points. Chelsea sits six points from the top of the table. Who has been beaten to get there really does not matter. Jose Mourinho’s title winning teams in any league rarely beat their most direct rivals, they simply made sure they smashed all the teams they should be beating. And to add to all of that, the last time Chelsea was only six or less points off top last season was on MD3.
The wider the window, the harder it is to deny that Chelsea has improved from last season. Do the Blues need to stop losing points in matches they should be taking all three? Yes if they want the title. But year two of a year three plan was about closing the gap, not crossing the finish line. As always, much will be settled over the winter period but as it stands the Blues are looking like a side ready to go the distance of the race.