Chelsea: Thomas Tuchel’s XI selection becoming clearer than expected

Managers are their habits, at Chelsea and everywhere else. A manager that will play youth will do so when they have alternatives, a manager that forges an “us against the world” locker room will do so even in a relatively liked locker room, and a manager that tinkers will likely always tinker at some level.

It makes sense why managers are this way. At a certain point, they figure out what works best for them and they roll with it. Maybe it gets found out by the opponent, maybe it doesn’t, but managers are just like everyone else in the sense that they will do what makes them most comfortable.

Thomas Tuchel’s squad selection at Chelsea initially raised some questions but time is making his habits and preferences clearer. There isn’t necessarily a formula to know exactly what he will do before a match, but the patterns emerging implies some things he tends to lean on.

On paper, Tuchel’s Chelsea lines up in a 3-4-2-1 every match. There were a few times where it looked more like a 3-4-1-2, but much of that has to do with the fluidity of at least one of the front three players (more on that shortly). In practice, his formation has mostly stuck to that 3-4-2-1 shape though not universally. There have been times where the final average positions are more akin to a 4-2-4 or 3-3-4. Ironically, this seems to happen most often in matches where Reece James is the right back, pushing up almost in line with the forwards.

The front three has been the area that Tuchel has tinkered with most, but it appears he has landed on a set of three players that will include a runner, a linker, and a focal point. The runner is the easiest to explain; it is simply a player that can get in behind or find space. Timo Werner, Christian Pulisic, and Callum Hudson-Odoi all fit into this category.

The linker and focal point are trickier. In theory, the focal point is the striker. That theory, however, fails to hold up against the likes of Kai Havertz or Mason Mount playing as the false nine/10. When either line up centrally, they drop into midfield to create a midfield box shape. Typically, this is made of the two central mids, the runner (who has space in front of the box to latch on to), and Havertz or Mount serving the role as the linker (even if they are playing as striker).

Other linkers in the squad include Hakim Ziyech. Havertz and Mount both do this role when playing as the most central player and if playing wide of a central player. Tammy Abraham and Olivier Giroud would serve as more traditional focal points. Interestingly, Mount serves as a wide focal point when Havertz is filling the role of the linker. Even better is the two can swap the role as needed to escape pressure.

The rest of the pitch is more straight forward. Wingbacks are there to provide width and escape after creating an overload. Chelsea has two “offensive” wingbacks in Ben Chilwell and Callum Hudson-Odoi and two “defensive” wingbacks in Marcos Alonso and Reece James. Primarily, the difference seems to come down to how much they are expected to press versus contain and how much pressure Tuchel expects that flank to be under.

The midfield pair is primarily there to sweep balls the press fails to deal with, move the ball from defense to attack, and to recycle the ball in possession. N’Golo Kante, Mateo Kovacic, and Jorginho have all done this role in near equal measure. Ideally, there would be a fourth in the rotation but for whatever reason Tuchel has not deemed Billy Gilmour fit for task. Mount has filled in late in this role and while he can do the job, the fluidity up top suffers without him.

The back three is pretty cut and dry. The wide centerbacks are expected to get forward into or even past midfield if the situation demands it, which is why Cesar Azpilicueta and Antonio Rudiger have played in the roles so much. The central role is more about the type of pass and defense Tuchel is looking for. Thiago Silva is much more of a forward passer suiting games when the opponent plays a high line that leaves space for runners to get into. Andreas Christensen is more of a wide passer, preferring to get the ball out to the wingbacks rather than up to the forwards or into the center mids. Kurt Zouma is somewhere between both, a jack of all trades master of none situation. He can do what Silva and Christensen do, but not as well as either which likely explains why he has struggled to make the XI with Tuchel.

So, why does any of this matter? Mainly because the consistency allows Chelsea to rotate while still playing at a high level. Almost any XI can be expected to go out and click now and that is something that has not been present for some time at Chelsea. Perhaps more importantly, however, is that it allows Tuchel and the club to clearly identify targets in the market to strengthen the side.

The Blues could do with more center backs that can get into midfield or over it if needed. Chelsea also needs a fourth midfielder they can trust, ideally one with a great passing range as the current three in rotation don’t offer much in terms of chance creation. The forwards are the hardest spot as the Blues have tons of depth for the role but not all the depth is ideal. A stronger runner could be needed and a focal point would also be nice. The wingbacks are pretty perfect but a new offensive right back could see Hudson-Odoi move to compete as a runner.

Chelsea’s getting better as they develop their habits. These habits will allow the squad to find the holes and patch them over the summer. Tuchel has shown himself to be a great manager and, historically, a tinker, but there is a method to the madness so far at Chelsea.