Chelsea: Sometimes, it is better to be lucky than be good

Another week, yet another close victory for Chelsea, this time at the expense of top-four rivals West Ham. The Blues’ 1-0 win on Saturday afternoon was vital in the chase for next season’s Champions League, as it put them three points clear of the Hammers with only five matches left to play. Certainly, nothing is guaranteed, though, and the team’s inconsistent play has left many supporters moderately concerned.

Still, the results have been fantastic with Thomas Tuchel at the helm. Since his appointment, Chelsea has won 14 times in its last 21 matches, with only two defeats during that span. The West London side has also climbed from ninth to fourth in the EPL table, an especially remarkable achievement considering how poor its form was at the end of the Frank Lampard era. While no one can deny the team’s improvement under its new manager, there has been a slight feeling of luckiness to the outcomes of some recent matches.

Chelsea’s biggest area of growth under Tuchel has obviously been its defensive rigidity. Following the match on Saturday, Chelsea tied Manchester City for the most clean sheets among all teams in Europe’s top five leagues in all competitions with 28, 17 of which have come during the German tactician’s reign. This renaissance at the back has largely been a result of the team’s formation change from a 4-3-3 to a 3-4-3, but also because of individual players stepping up, most notably Antonio Rudiger, Cesar Azpilicueta, and Andreas Christensen.

This elevated level of play has combined with a number of questionable decisions in Chelsea’s favor to produce its recent run of great form. The most obviously dubious call from the West Ham match was Fabian Balbuena’s sending off in the 81’ minute for his late challenge on Ben Chilwell. I thought Chris Kavanaugh’s decision to produce the red at that moment was soft, but his inconsistency when it came to a similar tackle on Antonio Rudiger only a short time later was even more troubling. The fouls were nearly identical and, in my opinion, not worthy of the red cards that accompanied them. The Blues were extremely fortunate to play the last 15’ of the match against ten men.

A comparable situation took place in Chelsea’s previous game, a 0-0 draw with Brighton, as well. The Blues were under serious pressure from the Seagulls as the clock approached 90’, with Kepa Arrizabalaga being forced into a reflexive save from Adam Lallana and Danny Welbeck rocking the goalpost with a curler from outside the box. It really looked like Brighton was on the verge of breaking the deadlock, but Ben White was given his marching orders for a somewhat cynical pullback on Callum Hudson-Odoi. White’s dismissal completely flipped the momentum of the game, and Chelsea’s man advantage allowed them to maintain the clean sheet during added time.

Looking even further back, the Blues have had tremendous good luck when it comes to hand balls this season. Two of the most high-profile examples of this trend came against Manchester United and Liverpool, matches in which CHO and N’Golo Kante, respectively, each had incidents that could have resulted in penalty kicks for the opposition. Both times, though, the referee decided that the hand balls were unintentional and Chelsea escaped without any serious consequences.

It should be said, being lucky is absolutely necessary on the way to winning the Premier League. Every champion gets a fortunate bounce here and there, and the truly great teams are those who take full advantage of them. While the EPL trophy might not be on its way to Stamford Bridge at the end of this season, Chelsea’s good luck has led to great results that will hopefully boost the team into next year’s Champions League. We, as supporters, must all stay confident and remember that sometimes it is better to be lucky than be good.