The absolute miracle of Chelsea scoring a goal this season

Chelsea fell apart in one brief moment. Mateo Kovacic was bowled over after dwelling on the ball just a touch too long. Wilfred Ndidi took the ball, made one quick pass to Kelechi Iheanacho who was wide open in the center, and slotted it in simply. It was counter pressing a team playing out of the back 101 and it left a blemish on what would otherwise have been a pretty complete Chelsea performance.

What really stood out about the moment, however, was how utterly simple it was for Leicester City. Liam Twomey of The Athletic raised the point during the game. Other teams just make it look easy to score whereas Chelsea, all season, has labored.

Every goal Chelsea scores feels like a miracle. Less about something crafted or created and more something that just tends to happen. Other stats are bearing that out in less than appealing ways.

Jorginho is now Chelsea’s top Premier League scorer. Yes, you read that right. All of them are penalties too. So, it is one miniature miracle Chelsea is anywhere near top four when A: their top scorer has less than 10 goals and B: they are all penalties.

Timo Werner, meanwhile, would have had a hattrick or at least a brace in a reality where VAR was kinder. Instead, he has hit the back of the net 26 times this season while only being credited with 12 goals. Yes, a hefty chunk of the penalties that the Blues have earned have been a result of Werner. Many sites credit that as assists which inflates his numbers somewhat too. But that is hardly a good number to bandy about, even if things like offsides tend to drop the longer a player is in a league.

It is also hard to separate all of this from the Tammy Abraham situation. Say what you will about Abraham, but he has maintained a hold on at least being the joint top scorer despite barely featuring since February. He surely would have added to his tally had he played.

There is a source to all of this and an understandable one. While Frank Lampard briefly had defense figured out this season, when that collapsed he fell into “outscore the opponent”. That’s logical because you literally need to score more than the opponent to win, but it left Chelsea too open at the back and in general they just ended up conceding more.

When Tuchel arrived, he did what many midseason appointees do: he prioritized defense and possession. While no part of the game is necessarily easier to teach, those two factors are at least faster to settle down into a team. From there, you simply trust your attackers to find something to turn a 0-0 into a 1-0. Almost always, this Chelsea side has been able to do so.

But it’s an issue that has plagued Tuchel’s tenure. Goals are happening less by creation and quality and more by happenstance. Sometimes you need that, as was the case of Iheanacho’s goal against Chelsea. But can anyone really see Chelsea scoring that type of goal right now?

Just to really drive that nail home, look at the goal scorers since Tuchel’s arrival. 14 players have scored for Tuchel, which is an exceptional number in of itself. It’s the breakdown that is the problem. Mason Mount leads with six goals, followed closely behind by Hakim Ziyech, Christian Pulisic, and Jorginho on four. Kai Havertz and Timo Werner share three each. Olivier Giroud and Marcos Alonso have two each. And Cesar Azpilicueta, Ben Chilwell, Emerson, Antonio Rudiger, Tammy Abraham, and Kurt Zouma all have a lone goal.

It’s also a pretty significant issue that Chelsea paid so much for the likes of Kai Havertz, Timo Werner, and Hakim Ziyech only to struggle to score goals at all. That isn’t necessarily the fault of any of those players, but it also indicates that throwing money at the issue isn’t enough of an answer.

The foundation for Chelsea is well laid out. They know how to defend and keep the ball. But there is very much a ceiling to a team that is relying on someone, dear God please anyone to score. There is a ceiling to a team that’s highest goal scorer in the league is exclusively scoring from penalties and another player has had more goals chalked off than scored.

Maybe the answer is a striker that can just put it in the back of the net, no questions asked. Maybe it’s a midfielder that can create even more chances for the players ahead of him. Maybe it’s a tactical tweak, like the 3-5-2 used against Leicester in the league that seemed to create more opportunities.

At the end of the day, Chelsea just has to figure out something that stops goals from being miracles when they happen. The Blues need to find the hammer that lets them break through this ceiling. Until then, they will be limited in how high they can go.