The Chelsea guide to everything that matters on MD 38

It all comes down to this for Chelsea and the other 19 Premier League teams. After what feels like an overstuffed season, the Premier League finally arrives at its final matchday. Much is already locked up, but there is still plenty to play for at the same time. How is all of this looking from the Chelsea perspective?

Champion: Manchester City

Somehow Pep Guardiola went from on the verge of leaving from being found out, to having a glacier start to the season, to flipping the script and souring to the tile with ease. Much is said about Guardiola’s “right way to play”, but very little is said about just how much that has changed from Barcelona, to Bayern Munich, to Manchester City where there have now been two very distinct “right ways”.

By shoring up the shape, pressing a little less, and attacking with speed and/or verticality a little more, Guardiola’s slow start turned into a pacing mechanism for the rest of the race. They can’t be unseated and have been partying for a few weeks now. Hopefully that comes back in the final.

Top Four: Manchester United and friends

This is the one Chelsea fans (and honestly, most fans) are gonna have the closest eye on. Three teams are fighting over two spots: Chelsea (yay), Liverpool (boo), and Leicester City (mostly meh but also boo after the last two matches).

The only team that has stayed in and/or around top four all season has been Leicester City. Ironically, they are in the tightest spot. Even if they win against Tottenham, they will either hope that one of Chelsea or Liverpool don’t or they’ll be hoping they can overcome a four goal GD deficit from Liverpool. Hardly ideal for a team that somehow bounced back from their collapse last season only to seemingly collapse again this season.

Liverpool’s situation is similar to Leicester’s, albeit a much different path. Jurgen Klopp’s defending Champions were objectively terrible for a good swath of the campaign, but somehow they have surged back to control their own destiny (mostly). A win against Crystal Palace should be enough to see them over the line, provided Leicester don’t go crazy.

This is, however, a Chelsea site and everyone reading this will surely care most about Chelsea’s chances. After being five points down when Frank Lampard was sacked, Thomas Tuchel surged up the table, stumbled a bit against Arsenal, and righted the ship against Leicester in the league to leave it to MD 38.

If Chelsea beat Aston Villa, they are in. If the Blues draw, they’ll be hoping one of Liverpool or Leicester fail to win. If Chelsea loses, it gets a little complicated.

Liverpool would have to win. Leicester would have to win or draw. If they draw, they’ll only make it if Chelsea somehow concedes three or more goals. The situation has the potential to go to goals for depending on the score lines of Chelsea and Leicester’s matches but the Blues should ignore all that and just win.

And, of course, Chelsea has one more safety net after all that: winning the Champions League.

Europa League and Conference League: All the way down to Leeds

Fifth and sixth will go to the Europa League no matter what now. The real interesting one will be the newly formed Conference League. If Europa League was already something worth avoiding, the Conference League will be the plague for most clubs.

Whoever misses out on top four will find themselves in the Europa League spots. They’ll be joined by one of West Ham, Tottenham, or Everton.

By “rights”, West Ham has the strongest claim. They’ve had a fantastic season and have stayed high on the table throughout. They face Southampton where a win or draw will see them through at everyone else’s expense.

Tottenham will surely be hungriest for the spot, trying to pretend to be a big, Super League worthy club and all that. They’ll have to halt Leicester’s chances at top four to do so though and that seems unlikely. They’ll also need West Ham to lose so not much going for them.

Everton started very strongly but fell apart more and more as the season went on. So, a typical Everton season really. They face reigning champions Manchester City and, already needing West Ham to lose, they have little hope of Europa League.

But that’s where the Conference League “safety net” comes into play. Whoever gets seventh gets the spot. So, potentially West Ham, Tottenham, Everton, Arsenal, or Leeds. The first three have already been discussed and it’s a matter of West Ham getting the job done or not and then who loses least poorly between Tottenham and Everton most likely.

Arsenal will surely not overcome the GD gap, so a win is a must for them to get Conference League. They’ll also need West Ham to avoid defeat and Tottenham or Everton to fail to win. They play xG heroes in our hearts Brighton so that’s an up in the air one even with everything else that has to happen.

Leeds is probably the only team that might actually want Conference League. Do they have a mathematical chance? Yes. Would that mathematical chance require Tottenham and Everton to lose, Arsenal to draw at best, Leeds to beat West Brom, and Leeds to score about 15 goals? Yes. But there is a chance for dirty Leeds to make Europe, insane as it would be.

Nothing to play for at all: Villa to Burnley

Not much time will be needed here. Relegation is shored up and these teams only have final day bragging rights to play for. There are a few story lines worth mentioning however.

Aston Villa ensured safety this season with aplomb. They play Chelsea and it doesn’t matter for them, but they’ve had an excellent season even if they did come off the boil by the end of it. In many ways, they can be joined by Crystal Palace, Newcastle, Brighton, and Burnley who all never really had any fear of relegation throughout.

The disappointments around here are surely Southampton and Wolves. Southampton were flying high earlier in the year, even topping the table at one point. They then completely collapsed. Wolves, meanwhile, came into the season with high expectations and a goal of establishing themselves at least in a Europa League spot. They failed to make that transition. Nuno Espirito Santo will be leaving the club at the end of the season now as they look to bounce back next season.

The (very early) relegated sides

Relegation came early this season, leaving little to play for. The surprise here is Sheffield United who, after flying high last season, saw their wings melt in the heat of the sun. They will be going down dead last after last season provided so much hope and promise.

Fulham has turned into a yo-yo club. Scott Parker did well to get them back up as quickly as they did, but throwing money at problems and trying to play toe to toe with most of the Premier League has proven, again, to be a bad idea for Fulham. They never really put up much of a fight as they crash back down, hoping to yo-yo again.

West Brom was the side that briefly had hope. Occasionally, they’d get a win just big enough, just impressive enough, that it looked like they just might make it in the end. Sam Allardyce, relegation avoidance specialist, only made that seem more likely. But, alas, legends must come to an end and Allardyce saw his first relegation in the Premier League. He fades once more into the darkness, keeping a close eye on the next club to be within reach.

How do you think the final day will play out? Let us know in the comments and on Twitter!