Chelsea’s top goal-getter in 2020/21: What’s next for Timo Werner?

He missed an easy chance on the night Chelsea won the Champions League for the second time in its history, and then another. He missed the interviewer’s question amid the raucous celebrations going on in the background. He looks to have missed the Chelsea badge entirely in a now-famous freeze-frame that circulated on social media after the Blues won the cup. But if you are a Chelsea fan with a heart, chances are, none of these imperfections irked you, for Timo Werner has endeared himself to the faithful like few others.

Chelsea beat Liverpool to the signing of Werner last summer, which was seen at that time as a major coup by the Blues. The German looked destined to link up with his compatriot Jurgen Klopp at Anfield, but a proverbial phone call from Frank Lampard diverted his route towards London. Chelsea fans briefly got to witness Werner in action, with the forward starting – and scoring – in a pre-season friendly against Brighton. Days later, when the Blues faced the Seagulls in the Premier League again, Werner won a penalty, which was converted by Jorginho.

Werner’s first season at Chelsea can be split into three parts – one highly productive period punctuated by two disappointing spells. The Pride of London revisited all three phases of Werner’s debut season for the Blues while also sneaking back into time, now and then, to understand why he seems to have lost his magic touch. Despite the 24 goal contributions registered against his name this term, there are some distinct areas of improvement for the German. We look at what he can do, why and where he needs to improve, and how he can achieve that target.

1. Identifying areas of growth

The obvious place to start is goals. Werner scored 12 times in all competitions for Chelsea – just six of those coming in the league. He played 52 matches in his first season at the club and was handed a start in 42 of those, including the Champions League final. Most of the time the attacker was deployed as a lone forward in a front-three although, there were times – especially during the first half of the season – when Lampard decided to station him alongside Tammy Abraham.

A quick look at Werner’s expected goal numbers paints a dire picture. The German should’ve scored around 18 goals based on the chances he received, but only found the net 12 times – three of which were from the spot. Curiously, though, the attacker has overperformed in the assist department by a similar margin, meaning, while he scored six goals fewer than anticipated, he assisted five more than expected. He also won seven penalties, hit the woodwork at least five times, and was caught offside on 42 different occasions!

However, the narrative around Werner has not been about what he has done but what he hasn’t. Werner hasn’t been able to score the 20-odd goals expected of him, he hasn’t been able to tuck away some very easy chances, and he hasn’t looked confident for much of the season. Irregularities like these stand out when you’re a striker, even more so when a club has paid over 50 million for your services.

2. Improvements to be made

There are certain things Timo Werner excels at, most noticeable of which are his runs in behind the defense. The German was caught offside 42 times in the 2020/21 season, but that is the consequence of his cavalier approach to running past the opponents’ high defensive line. The more shots you take, the more you score, the more you miss – and all that. A good example of the same is the goal he had disallowed against Liverpool in a narrow 1-0 win back in March. Werner timed his run to perfection – or so he thought – before technology intervened to flag a marginal offside.

Werner’s runs do more than just take advantage of a high defensive line. Often he stretches play or creates space for his teammates to attack. However, the problem the German is facing in England is that many teams like to sit back and defend, denying space for him to run into. In comparison to the Bundesliga – where teams like to play on the front foot – many in England are more defensive in their approach.

Werner, naturally, is not suited to that kind of style of play. He is not a Didier Drogba or Diego Costa-esque frontman who can bully defenders and create space for himself using his physicality.  He needs room to attack, and that is a commodity not available easily in the Premier League, at least. Four of his six goals this season in the league came when he was allowed to attack the spaces behind the defensive line, or created by the movement of one of his teammates.

That doesn’t mean that space has been hard to come by for Werner, though. Even when the German has found himself with a yard or two to spare, he has been let down by his finishing – a curious situation given his numbers for RB Leipzig in 2019/20. Werner has missed 18 big chances in the Premier League this season, a number which he shares with Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane. However, unlike Mane and Salah, Werner produced far lower goals and has, at times, looked completely devoid of confidence. There is an element of bad luck to some of those missed chances, sure. However, one cannot overlook the fact that the German has been a poor finisher for most of the season, which puts his numbers in some context.

One “flaw” which Werner should not be accountable for is the huge drop in his expected goals numbers. Even though FBREF suggests that the German should’ve scored around 18 goals from the chances he received, that still is a massive drop-off from his xG numbers for the previous season, which stood at 27.2.

A reason for the same could be his proclivity to make inside-to-outside runs, which creates a difficult angle for him to shoot from. Often his shots are skewed wide of the post or land tamely in the hands of the goalkeeper. Moreover, Werner’s shot map for the season – courtesy of Understat – reveals that he shoots more from the left side of the pitch. This means that he takes a lot of his shots from his weak left foot. In comparison, the German’s shot map for RB Leipzig is much more balanced, with an emphasis on taking shots from central positions.

3. Solutions

Werner hit 12 goals across all competitions this season. His target for the next season must be higher, naturally. Domestically, meanwhile, the German should be aiming to hit at least double figures for the season, before targeting somewhere between 15-20 goals. Those might still feel like low numbers, but progression happens step-by-step. What can he do to achieve such numbers? This is where the tangible aspects of his game intertwine with the intangibles.

Going through some of the striker’s misses this term – a horrifying watch at times – it is clear that he is lacking in confidence and, as a consequence, composure. As the weeks have progressed those things have continually worsened; a case-in-point being Werner’s “assist” for Mason Mount for Chelsea’s second goal against West Bromwich Albion in a 5-2 defeat.

Retaining some of that confidence will be key. The Pride of London watched all the goals the German has scored since the 2017/18 season, and the thing that was consistent during this time was the assurance in his finishes. The forward smashed the ball in from left, right, and center. He scored from distance, from difficult angles, from the penalty spot, and volleys. He scored from both his feet and his head – all of those confident finishes.

So how does he get back some of that confidence? Firstly, and perhaps more easily, Werner should get himself back on penalty duties. Spot kicks are almost a cheat code in football and can help boost numbers and, in turn, confidence instantly. Moreover – and this is easier said than done -the striker should compose himself before hitting a shot. He has often snapped at shots from a good position, which is understandable given the anxieties that come from not scoring in a long, long time. However, some of the chances that he wasted were relatively easy and a moment’s patience would’ve helped him hit – and place – them better. Both of his chances in the Champions League final stand out in that regard.

Then there are things that the team can do for him. At Leipzig, the attack was built around Werner. He had a better understanding with his teammates, as such, they understood his movements to perfection. That allowed him to come inside from outside and position himself better before taking a shot. At Chelsea, Werner is just a cog in the attack. He has not yet reached the level of understanding with his new teammates that he had with his old ones. Often, his peers miss his runs in behind completely, denying him the chance to run at goal. That understanding will develop in time.

A new strike partner could help too. Werner often played with one of Yussuf Poulsen or Patrik Schick during his final season in Leipzig – strong, tall target men who drew attention away from the German. Chelsea has been linked with Romelu Lukaku, whose partnership with Lautaro Martinez at Inter Milan can be recreated with Werner at Stamford Bridge. The leader-like figure of Lukaku can also take some of the pressure away from Werner while helping him with the mental aspect of the game.

In the meantime, Werner should keep his head up and take the chances as they come – no matter the outcome. His attitude is the most endearing aspect of his game, and something which stood out across the season despite his poor spells.