Euro 2020: Matches with the biggest Chelsea influence

France vs. Germany

When: Tuesday, June 15
France: Olivier Giroud, N’Golo Kante, Kurt Zouma
Germany: Kai Havertz, Antonio Rudiger, Timo Werner

The highlight of the group stage from a Chelsea perspective or otherwise. Germany has a lot to prove after a catastrophic meltdown at the last World Cup, and arrives with a semi-revamped squad that may have just a few too many veterans in its ranks.

The starting line-up that Joachim Low trots out in this match may very well dictate Germany’s fate in the tournament as a whole. Fans should be concerned if all of the usual suspects—Manuel Neuer, Mats Hummels, Toni Kroos and Thomas Muller—all start the first match. Germany desperately needs to close the book on its 2014 World Cup winners, who have arguably become more of a toxic clique than a source of wizened leadership in the dressing room.

One excellent way to avoid that fate could be to instead field three Champions League winners in Antonio Rudiger, Kai Havertz and Timo Werner. All three have been mainstays in Low’s team for a while now, and could be the catalyst for a German renaissance after a three-year trough of self-examination (no, not that kind, Joachim!) and retooling. One of the unique traits of this German squad is its lack of definite strikers with Kevin Volland being the only out-and-out center forward. Whether that’s just the product of a weak set of strikers in the national set-up or a hint at a specific tactical plan remains to be seen, but it at least suggests that both Havertz and Werner will be relied upon to score a handful of goals a piece if Germany intends to make a meaningful run in the tournament. Rudiger will do what he does and be excellent at it, for better or worse. Just have all the French attackers start the game with face masks on.

As for the French, their battle will be more with their own complacency rather than with their opponents. The French team is easily the deepest in the tournament, giving Didier Deschamps a million different ways to outwit, outwork or simply overpower opponents. Honestly, I’d pick a second France squad made up of those who missed the cut to at least make the quarterfinals. Regardless, France’s best bet might be to continue on with something similar to what earned it a fairly straightforward World Cup win three years ago.

I’ll admit to some bias here, as running that winning formula back would mean a reprisal of starring roles for two Chelsea players in N’Golo Kante and Olivier Giroud. In 2018, Giroud grew into a starting role and somehow became France’s most important attacking player, despite not registering a shot on target for the entire tournament. His ability to carve out opportunities and angles for Kylian Mbappe and Antoine Griezmann solved what few problems France appeared to have in the early days of the tournament.

The reintroduction of Karim Benzema is the one real threat to Giroud’s ability to have a similar impact as he did in 2018, and Benzema’s presence in general is almost certainly a toxic one given his personal conduct and quotes about the difference in quality between him and Giroud. France loves a good old intrasquad bust up, and don’t be surprised if Benzema is at the center of it.

One person who you can guarantee won’t be involved in any bust ups, however, is Kante. The stakes are pretty simple here. If France wins the tournament and Kante plays the whole way through, he probably wins the Ballon d’Or at the end of the year.

The risk of him playing poorly is practically laughable at this point; the only real threat would be an annoying muscle injury, which seems to be a concerningly regular occurrence when Kante suits up for France. Against Germany, Kante will likely be hard to spot with Leon Goretzka presumably obscuring him from view due to his hulking frame. Regardless, expect him to be a thorn in the side of Werner and Havertz as they try to play between the lines and run the channels. Those are where Kante does his best work, and it will be interesting to see the Germans’ reactions to being on the receiving end of Kante’s domination.

As for Giroud, it’s still hard to say if he’ll be a major contributor this time around. He’s getting dangerously close to surpassing Thierry Henry as France’s all-time leading goalscorer, which is absolutely hilarious to think about. Unfortunately, there’s probably not much to say about Kurt Zouma, as he’s unlikely to see many minutes, partly due to his limited role under Tuchel. If France needs a set piece goal, maybe he’ll come through, but Deschamps has some great options at centerback who have already proven themselves in international play. I’d be happy to be wrong on this one though.

As for the match itself, don’t be surprised if Giroud starts on the bench. Benzema was called up for a reason, and it’s hard to think he’ll be there just to fill the striker quota. Against Germany in particular, a physically dominant set of centerbacks that will likely include Niklas Sule and Rudiger should force France to create chances from wider areas. Fortunately for them, they have some of the best wide players in the world. With Kante harassing the few deep-lying playmakers Germany has, I’d expect Havertz and Werner to either look stranded up top or spend too much time trying to regain control of the midfield to serve as threats on France’s goal.

Prediction: 2-1 France

A straightforward win to get France up and running, but with Germany looking more formidable than its limp 2018 version.