Where Billy Gilmour plays next season one of Chelsea’s biggest decisions

Chelsea has had one of the world’s best academies (and at times, arguably the best) for the better part of the last decade. It’s been a collective effort of high level coaching, developing players, and finding the right players from elsewhere to bolster the side.

The problem has always come with the most important step: making the first team. It’s not good enough to say “if they are good enough they’ll make it” because that ignores the reality of the risks involved and the bravery needed to play youth. Even the idea of giving them a loan can be dangerous as it is all too easy to see a club tick all the boxes on paper but meet none of them in reality.

Of all of the youth out of Chelsea’s academy the past decade, few are as ready as Billy Gilmour. That is why where he plays next season is so important. It could easily become one of the defining moments of the window not unlike the Kevin De Bruyne fiasco. Or it could become another case of wasted potential like Chelsea saw with the likes of Josh McEachran, Lewis Baker, and even Ruben Loftus-Cheek. Gilmour is far too good to be put down the same path.

Should Gilmour stay next season, he absolutely has to play far more than he did under Frank Lampard or Thomas Tuchel. Obviously Jorginho, N’Golo Kante, and Mateo Kovacic are better players. But Gilmour has been able to boss the midfield against the likes of Liverpool, Manchester City, and England in various circumstances. Late last season when Kovacic was injured, Tuchel relied on Kante and Jorginho game after game for far too long. Eventually, he did give Gilmour a chance but that chance should have come sooner.

Should Gilmour stay next season, he doesn’t need to start over any of those three every single time. But he will need at least 1500 minutes of playing time to develop. More likely, he’ll need closer to 2000. The former would put him close to the amount Tammy Abraham got over the course of the season and the latter would put him closer to Andreas Christensen (both of whom spent half a season unfavored by one of the managers and favored by the other).

If Chelsea can’t guarantee that, Gilmour has to go out on loan which creates at least two issues. The first is Chelsea will likely need a midfielder to fill that spot vacated by Gilmour. A new signing will only make things harder for Gilmour (at least until one of the other three depart). Conor Gallagher could remain as he offers a much different profile to Gilmour, but it will take preseason to determine that (plus he also needs the minutes to develop).

The second issue is finding the right loan for Gilmour to develop. Playing time is the be all end all. If Gilmour needs 1500-2000 minutes at Chelsea, he should be getting closer to 3000 plus on loan. Playing style is important but simply getting on the pitch is the most important thing. Gallagher might not have been able to play his ideal way under Sam Allardyce, but he at least was playing.

There appears to be no shortage of Premier League suitors for Gilmour. The one that looks most likely at the moment might be one of the best landing spots on paper as well. Norwich, still coached by Daniel Farke, are looking to bolster their side enough to stay up this time. With Oliver Skipp returning to Tottenham, that opens a spot for a playmaker of Gilmour’s type in their midfield.

A big advantage of this loan would be Farke’s history with Tuchel. Farke was the academy manager for the entirety of Tuchel’s time at Dortmund. While it would be expected that their ideas may have diverged in the years apart, it should still be assumed that the style is similar enough that Gilmour would gain massively from Farke’s management. The fear would be if Farke was sacked but Norwich seems the type of club to back him once again.

Wolverhampton have been floated and the idea of Southampton, Crystal Palace, and Leeds have been floated by fans. They would all offer different things but the least risky (at the moment) remains Norwich. Again, playing time is the be all end all but style is still important. It is hard for those other clubs to tick both boxes in the way Norwich could.

Regardless, Gilmour must be playing a ton next season. He hasn’t taken as many plaudits as he has for potential alone. In many ways, he’s perfectly ready to go as it is. He just needs the minutes to iron out the creases and sharpen the points. If that can be done at Chelsea, keep him and save millions on a midfielder. Otherwise, find the right destination to ensure he returns to Chelsea in a year as a Premier League star in the making.