Chelsea picked a bad year in the transfer market for their goals

The transfer ban came at a perfect time for Chelsea. The club was forced to use their youth and loan players in a way that almost certainly wouldn’t have happened otherwise. It made the idea of Frank Lampard coming in acceptable which was also incredibly important for the youth. But beyond that, it allowed the club to sit on a large pile of cash as the world fell apart.

Covid hit football hard. Clubs that closely follow their revenue and use it for transfers and improvements were suddenly struggling. Chelsea wasn’t one of those clubs though. Not only does the club have a benevolent owner willing to cover deficits, but that big pile of cash from the transfer ban was untouched.

These factors allowed Chelsea to be one of the only clubs able to buy last summer. The Blues were able to afford tons of transfer fees from clubs that had little idea as to how they would replace those players. This summer, however, is different. Chelsea is not the only club able to buy in the transfer market this year but the clubs they can buy from will still struggle to replace stars.

In short, the market is inflated in all the ways that work against Chelsea. Say the club wants Declan Rice. They’ll have to pay over value for the player because West Ham will have no idea where they can find a replacement. Even if they could, it’s likely another club unwilling to sell in part because they’ll be unable to replace the player. So the prices go up across the board.

The effects of all of this are only increased by other top clubs being able to spend. So not only are the prices inflated from the selling club, but also from the competition of rivals going for the same players. And, often times, even different players. The transfer fee Harry Kane might go for is absolutely going to be tied to what an Erling Haaland transfer eventually goes for. If anyone thought Covid would undo the inflation caused by Barcelona and Paris-Saint Germain mega spending, they were right but only for a year. It’s arguably only worse now.

Clubs like Dortmund are doing all this even knowing that next year they’ll get less than half of the current fees talked about. Simply put, clubs would rather have a player for another year than a pile of cash that they won’t know who or how to spend. Having Haaland and losing half his value is more important to Dortmund that scrambling for a player to replace him.

That sword is cutting both ways for Chelsea too. How many years has the club entered the summer trying to sell off tons of older loan army players? Now, think about the clubs those players can realistically go to. Those are the clubs without a great deal of money to spend. It’s optimistic of Marina Granovskaia and the Chelsea board to think they’ll make a profit off most of the players that have long overstayed their welcome. There will be no coup like the Alvaro Morata transfer. If Chelsea wants to move Emerson, Tiemoue Bakayoko, Ross Barkley and so many others, they’ll have to take what they can get or be stuck with them on the wage bill another year.

Simply put, it’s a bad year for Chelsea to be trying to clear the deck while bringing in a super star like Haaland. If one is tied to the other (i.e., raising funds for the transfer), the Blues are already behind and out of luck. The clubs that would buy those players simply can’t afford what Chelsea is offering. And if that means Chelsea can’t afford Haaland then it also means the alternatives are going to come at inflated prices the Blues will also struggle to match.

If Chelsea wants to sell, they’ll just have to take what they can get. If Chelsea wants to buy, they’ll have to pay over value for the player. That’s where the market is for the clubs that have “recovered” from the Covid crisis and those that haven’t.