It was pretty clear that Chelsea would need a fourth midfielder in the last transfer window. It simply isn’t sustainable to go into a season like this one with only three midfielders. At the same time, those three play at such a high level that it is truly an unknown how a fourth would get on. Billy Gilmour and Conor Gallagher opted to go out on loan. Saul Niguez came in on loan to at least bring a similar level of experience as the other options.
But, the original problem more or less remains. Midfield spots are at a premium, especially because Chelsea only really plays with two. The battle for who starts is a race to the top, but also one to the bottom when it comes to looking forwards into future seasons.
The race to the top is form based. Whoever is the most in form is going to start. It’s that simple. It gets more complicated when someone needs to rest, but Thomas Tuchel’s rotations have been less one for one and more who is neck in the pecking order. Much like last season, if you’re the third choice, you’re first in on rotation and things aren’t too bad. But fourth choice is more of an unknown.
While it isn’t sustainable to have only three midfielders for a season, it is if they manage to stay fit for the full year. One player can do two or three games then rotate out for a day before returning. That’s manageable fitness and form wise. The fourth option is really just for the case of injury. But injury, or poor form, in a Tuchel side can really make things tricky.
That’s the race to the bottom. Tuchel tends to lean on players that have shown form and fitness consistently. The only real outlier to this (thus far) seems to be N’Golo Kante but he’s injured often enough that the lines become blurred. Form is likely more of an issue, which is why Saul’s debut is a bigger set back than anticipated.
But the race to the bottom is also important for the future with Gilmour and Gallagher looming. Gallagher’s already making a strong case for a role next season, Gilmour is up in the air but if he fulfills his potential he’ll be in the running too. Unfortunately, midfield spots will remain at a premium so long as 3-4-3 and 3-4-2-1 are the primary shapes.
At the same time, however, neither Jorginho nor Kante are getting any younger. As both move into their later years and their contracts run short, the club will have a decision to make. If the Blues want to cash in, there really will be few remaining opportunities. Ideally, the club keeps both as both have shown different ways that indicate they will age gracefully. Kante’s biggest issue is his on again off again injuries, but he’s intelligent enough that he can adapt around any loss in fitness.
For Kovacic’s part, it’s good that he’s in some of his best Chelsea form with these notions circling. If Jorginho and Kante were both fit and in form at the same time, it would be hard to see how Kovacic fits in. His crossroads would likely be larger than the other two’s come the end of the season if playing time was lessened.
Saul, meanwhile, has plenty of time to earn his way into a permanent move but things will obviously need to improve from his one and only match thus far. He’s not only competing with the three currently at the club, but also the ideas of the players Gilmour and Gallagher could be. There isn’t even a sample size yet but comments about wishing Gallagher had stayed instead aren’t without merit.
And then, there is the looming table flip that is sure to happen eventually: a formation change. Eventually, Chelsea will change formations for one reason or another. A simple switch to any three man midfield will change the calculus of this race in many ways, most notably because it will add Mason Mount and maybe Kai Havertz into the battle. Suddenly four players fighting for two spots could become six or seven fighting for three. That’s not dissimilar to the current battle for the forward spots where it already seems some players are going to be more out than in come a transfer window.
The players will understand that they are masters of their own destiny here, mostly. Kovacic already taken control of his, Jorginho has never really let go. Kante needs to get past his injury issues to do the same. Saul needs to adapt to the league. Gallagher is doing exactly what he needs to be doing. Gilmour can get there too, if Norwich ever really hits a stride.
The race to the top is all about form earning starts. The race to the bottom is all about trying to earn a place at Chelsea in future seasons. As it stands, midfield has both.