Is it getting too easy to nullify Chelsea’s overall game plan?

Chelsea has won three games this season by three goals margins, but could it be that opposition teams are finding it easy to nullify the Blues’ attack? Chelsea has always seemed to find solutions to games this season, except against Manchester City. Chelsea now has a center forward in Romelu Lukaku that they can rely on for goals, and in his first few games he got chances to score that he put away, however in recent games some recurring problems from last season have emerged.

Chelsea plays with three centerbacks, two wingbacks and two central midfielders, at least. This means that Tuchel has at most three attackers on the pitch in any match. Of these three, one or two of them is often tasked with creating chances, and one is tasked with scoring or finishing chances. Last season Chelsea struggled against teams that pressed them intensely. This should almost go without saying as pressing is designed to make other teams struggle. However, a team like Chelsea that boasts of pressing its opponents well and prides itself in having several press-resistant players, should be dealing with pressure a lot better than Chelsea does.

Barnsley last season in the FA Cup fifth round is one example. Chelsea played most of the game in their own middle and defensive third, eventually conceding more than double the amount of shots Barnsley conceded, while also conceding more shots on target than the Championship side. Chelsea eventually won due to being clinical with the one shot on target they got through Tammy Abraham.

The game plan of Barnsley was fairly evident: Block passes to and press the central midfielders so they cannot get the ball to the front men, then press the front men heavily so they have nowhere to go. This worked effectively. Billy Gilmour got caught in possession several times and gave away the ball too much for central midfielder. Christian Pulisic and Hakim Ziyech combined for 39 losses of possession in that game. Barnsley made Chelsea toothless, and only lost out on the day simply for not having the better players.

Southampton also did this to the Blues in the Premier League that season under Tuchel in a 1-1 draw. Leicester City used a similar plan against Chelsea in the FA Cup final and pressed the Blues’ attacking players. This press seems to work so effectively partly because of the formation Tuchel has decided on, and partly because of the cohesion that is often lacking in Chelsea’s attack. When the attackers are pressed, they often need support to temporarily release that pressure, the problem is that the support – if it’s there – is almost never close to the opposition goal, so Chelsea’s attackers have to either pass the ball back into midfield, or lose the ball if they insist on doing things themselves. Sometimes openings occur even in the midst of these intense pressures and Chelsea does not make the most of it either through poor decision making or poor execution of ideas.

This season coaches have seemed to catch on to this weakness again. Dean Smith’s Aston Villa was the first to do something similar this season. Chelsea winning that game 3-0 created the impression that the Blues were comfortable; they were anything but. The Blues – Lukaku more specifically – took the chances when they came. Tottenham Hotspur was also able to succeed in making Chelsea toothless for at least the first half of the league game. They deployed three central midfielders, outnumbering Chelsea in midfield, making it easy for them to press Chelsea central midfielders and hence cut off supply to Chelsea’s front three. Tottenham controlled the first half, it took Tuchel bringing in N’Golo Kante in the second half to regain control.

Zenit was the latest team to near nullify Chelsea’s attack. Many of these teams often end up conceding goals, but it’s clear that teams may have found a way to minimize whatever threat the front three might carry. Teams don’t even bother to have a plan for Lukaku because they know if they can cut off his supply, he’d be as useful as when he’s not on the pitch. The Manchester City game was Guardiola executing this idea to perfection. The Chelsea players barely got their feet on the ball and when they did, they were swamped in seconds. The Blues ball retention and distribution were shocking as well, which just helped Guardiola’s plan.

These things are expected to get better with time, but it’ll be naïve to ignore the fact that Chelsea has struggled against high pressing sides and these sides have figured out effective ways of dealing with Chelsea’s potential threat in the final third. It is difficult to know how to counter this because the problem is partly systemic and partly personnel.

Playing just three attackers is part of why Chelsea has been so defensively solid under the tutelage of Tuchel, however that also means that the opposition have few players to focus on, especially with the fact that Chelsea doesn’t create a high volume of high quality chances.