A win is a win, but Chelsea has plenty to ponder over break

Chelsea defeated Southampton in perhaps the strangest match of the season. The Blues were completely dominate in the first half and really should have scored more. Then Southampton (rightly) earned a penalty and suddenly the Blues were back in their own heads. Thomas Tuchel seemed to be the same taking off two of the best performers on the day for two of his more trusted lieutenants.

When Southampton (rightly) earned their red card, the Blues shook off their funk. A sudden belief and a flurry of attacks followed, ultimately leading to a 3-1 victory. The scoreline would have made more sense had the chances been taken in the first half, but instead the team is left with a weird one to analyze.

There wouldn’t be too much to worry about if the match hadn’t come on the back of a rather poor run of matches since the last break. Scoreline have flattered, the Blues have squeaked by, and Chelsea has been beaten. The closest to dominance the team has gotten was the first half of Southampton and that didn’t last. A win is a win, but Thomas Tuchel and his staff will have plenty to ponder during the international break.

First, has the team been a bit found out? This happened with Antonio Conte’s 3-4-3 as well. For a long while, it caught everyone off guard. Then, teams figured out how to stall it to the point of inefficiency and they found the weak spots behind the wingbacks. Tuchel did try to adapt with the 3-5-2, but without proper pressing it quickly collapsed against Manchester City and was unable to do much of anything.

The first half against Southampton may imply that it is a personnel issue. Chelsea has had to juggle more injuries than usual, as well as a lack of fitness and form on the part of many. This has caused a lot of less than ideal partnerships to be fielded which may be the source of some of Chelsea’s issues. The use of almost any combination of Mason Mount, Kai Havertz, and Hakim Ziyech behind Romelu Lukaku has proven very static, for example. As has any of those three with Marcos Alonso or Cesar Azpilicueta (and to some extent, Reece James) as wingbacks behind them. Finally, while the midfield pivot of Jorginho and Mateo Kovacic has its uses, it also has its limitations.

Few of these issues were present against Southampton. Up top, Lukaku was the only “static” player as it were and it worked so long as Timo Werner and Callum Hudson-Odoi were on the move. Werner was also able to find plenty of space that allowed Azpilicueta to stay deeper and create in a more comfortable way. Opposite him, Ben Chilwell had a very free role with the now more defensively aware Hudson-Odoi occasionally covering. The pivot consisted of Kovacic and Ruben Loftus-Cheek, both of which were able to drive the ball out of the midfield and pressure in ways N’Golo Kante and Jorginho very rarely do. The second half fall back might be in part because of that, but overall it looked as though it could work.

It’s easy to get caught in the trap of just fielding a “best XI” but those relationships and combinations on the pitch matter. With the striker and the inside forwards as well as the inside forwards and the wingbacks, it is best to have a good variance of abilities. A pivot is a little harder to have variance in and still work against everyone, but the resurgence of Loftus-Cheek (and to a lesser extent, Ross Barkley) has given Tuchel more options than before.

What Tuchel may do with those options over break will be very interesting. It would be pretty easy to see Mason Mount playing a role similar to Loftus-Cheek’s and Hudson-Odoi featuring more in the attack. It’d also be easy to see Tuchel looking at his sudden influx of midfielders that can press and changing to a 4-3-3 with dual eights. The only stipulation to that is one of the centerbacks will be dropped somewhere along the line and there still might be a concern as to whether or not Chelsea can press and defend without three at the back.

Regardless, from Aston Villa to Southampton, the Blues haven’t been at their best. They still are top of the table or near top (depending on who wins between Liverpool and Manchester City, if there is a winner) despite not looking particularly great lately. The trick now is to make the adjustments necessary to ensure the points continue to come and the performances improve. It’s too easy to get caught into the trap of “well we’re winning so we don’t need to change”.

Frank Lampard got caught in that trap last season and couldn’t get out. Maurizio Sarri and arguably Antonio Conte and Jose Mourinho before as well. The best managers adapt for problems before they truly become problems. Tuchel’s wheels are turning, but will they turn the right way?