Chelsea: The worst kind of opponents offer the most to learn

Chelsea is facing a season of extremes. The Blues already got out of the first extreme that featured weeks of high quality opposition. Chelsea has another such run of games in January and into February, made worse by Edouard Mendy surely being away at the Africa Cup of Nations. But, the Blues also have long runs of very winnable matches. One of those runs starts now and another right as the Champions League is picking back up, should Chelsea advance as expected.

There is one slight hang-up, however. While Chelsea can go toe to toe with the best, they struggle most against the teams they shouldn’t. These opponents frustrate but offer learning.

The run of matches from now until the next international break is Malmo (H), Norwich (H), Southampton (in the cup), Newcastle (A), Malmo (A), and Burnley (H). For those keeping score at home, that’s three league matches against the current bottom three, a cup match against the team in 15th, and then two Champions League matches for the team at the bottom of the group without a goal.

There is no excuse why Chelsea shouldn’t win every single one of these matches. But that’s on paper, and this game rarely cares about how things are dreamed up. The reality is that almost all of these teams (Southampton and maybe Norwich aside) will sit back and dare the Blues to break them down. It’s an effective strategy because Chelsea doesn’t have a reliable answer for it.

Chelsea is at its best when the game is fast and open. When one team is holding firm, Chelsea rarely has enough movement or the ability to change tempo to make things happen. That’s one reason why Romelu Lukaku was brought in, but he’s only as good as the team willing to play through him rather than around him. The 3-5-2 shape has promise, but the configuration against Brentford (a much more traditional 3-5-2) left a huge gap between the forwards and the rest.

Some of these issues, at least recently, haven’t been controllable. Players have been injured, forcing some to play more than they would have otherwise. Add in internationals seemingly getting three matches as a norm now, and it being after a summer of three international tournaments, and players are tired. Thomas Tuchel’s been rotating a lot but much of that has been forced.

These matches offer two opportunities. The first is for the fringe players to continue to play in lower stakes games (if there is such a thing). The second is a chance to build some consistency. Tuchel has had to chop and change personnel and formation in response to the slate of games he was given. For these upcoming games, there is much less of a need to change formations. Even though there will be two matches a week, the space between them is relatively kind for playing some players repeatedly.

Champion teams share a few common traits over time. One is they are very consistent in their line up and ideas throughout (Pep Guardiola being the biggest misnomer). Another is they win the matches against the weaker teams every time. A team that can beat the teams they should be beating, even if they struggle against rivals, is generally in a very strong position come the title race.

These next few matches are tough because they will feature that which makes Chelsea struggle the most. But they also offer a chance to learn. What formation works? Who is trustworthy in matches? And how far can this team go this season?