Does many Chelsea goal scorers correlate to success this season?

Chelsea has 17 goal scorers this season with everyone contributing. Is that an indication of future success and what of assists and total goal involvement? Let’s take a look at two of Chelsea’s most successful recent seasons (Jose Mourinho 14/15 and Antonio Conte 16/17) as well as two less comparatively successful seasons (Maurizio Sarri 18/19 and Frank Lampard 19/20) and compare it to the quarter season Thomas Tuchel has seen thus far.

Starting with last Mourinho’s title, there were 16 individual goal scorers and 19 assisters. Diego Costa and Cesc Fabregas managed 10 or more goals and assists respectfully with Eden Hazard getting at least 10 of each. The bigger peak of 20 or more goal plus assist involvements came down to three players Cesc Fabregas (with just an absurd 24 assists), Hazard, and Diego Costa.

That was perhaps one of the weirder seasons in recent memory. Before 2015, Chelsea playing some fantastic, swashbuckling football. As soon as the Blues lost to Tottenham after New Year’s, Mourinho shut up shop. Only Hazard really continued a goal scoring or assisting rate at his previous levels for the remainder of the season.

Antonio Conte’s Chelsea title year was more consistent throughout. Though it ended with less overall goal scorers (15 compared to Mourinho’s 16) and assisters (17 to 19), the individuals simply scored or assisted more to cover the gap. Costa, Hazard, Pedro, and Willian all had 10 or more goals. Fabregas and Pedro both had 10 or more assists. As for 20 G+A or more, Fabregas, Pedro, Costa, and Hazard were all involved on both sides of the goal. Costa and Pedro actually broke the 30 G+A mark.

Fast forwarding a bit to Maurizio Sarri, his alleged attacking style didn’t really yield numbers different than his predecessors. He had more individual goal scorers with 17 with four breaking the 10 goal mark (Hazard, Olivier Giroud, Pedro, and Ruben Loftus-Cheek). He had the least assisters so far with 16, but Hazard, Willian, and Giroud all had 10 or more. The same three would be the only three with 20 G+A involvements with Hazard blowing well past 30 and nearly up to 40 in what was his peak year.

Frank Lampard’s full season had interesting numbers which can be expected A: given how much the team changed under him and B: the Covid break making things awkward at the end. 18 goal scorers, the most of any of the five mangers analyzed in this article, saw four break the 10 goal mark with Tammy Abraham, Willian, Christian Pulisic, and Giroud all contributing. Interestingly, Lampard had the least assisters of the managers with a full season with just 15. Only Pulisic broke 10 or more assists. It should be no surprise then that Pulisic had 20 or more G+A, joined by Abraham and Willian.

Sarri and Lampard’s season perhaps indicates that it takes only a slight change in scorers and assisters to turn a title campaign into a top four battle. At the same time, it only really takes one player to really tip these numbers. For Sarri, it was Hazard being in a career year. For Lampard, one could perhaps point to Pulisic (especially post lock down) as a difference maker.

Which brings us finally to Thomas Tuchel, roughly one quarter of the way through the season. His Blues already have 17 goal scorers and it’s not hard to see a few more names getting a goal and bringing Tuchel’s team ahead of the others. Assists are lagging a bit with 14 assisters but that gap could be closed as well.

It would be a bit unfair to hold the 10 goal or assist threshold against Tuchel for now. Romelu Lukaku’s four goals and Mateo Kovacic’s five assists at least put them on or above pace. As for G+A, Kovacic leads with six with Lukaku, Mason Mount, and Reece James just behind with five.

Those last numbers are perhaps the most telling but least surprising part of all of this. Tuchel’s Blues don’t score a lot, but have a fantastic rate for individuals getting the job done. Based on Sarri and Lampard, all it takes is one player to really tip the scales. Based on Mourinho and Conte, just two can almost guarantee a solid run for the title.

So, as things stand, the 17 goal scorers stat in of itself isn’t very revealing of the chances of a successful season. A better indicator is the one or two players really flying above the rest. Chelsea doesn’t currently have that, but if nothing else this data indicates that it doesn’t take much to tip the scales.