Chelsea is in very fine form at the moment, as they have been at this point in many previous seasons. Winter, however, is a slog. It is a great equalizer that separates the wheat from the chaff. Survive the winter in a good position and you are likely to maintain that position.
This has been one of the hardest things for Chelsea in almost every recent season. All three of Antonio Conte, Maurizio Sarri, and Frank Lampard had their clubs flying in November. But a bad January destroyed Conte’s second season. A bad February more or less pushed Sarri out the door, one way or the other. A bad December dug a hole Lampard could not escape from. Even Jose Mourinho, in his last title win, was wrecked by Tottenham so badly on New Year’s Day that he shelled Chelsea up and never let them back out.
Thomas Tuchel joined the club last season during the winter and set about turning the Blues into defensive juggernauts. The Blues simply do not go down easily under Tuchel. But this winter will be the test many others have struggled with. It won’t be helped that Tuchel will be even more tied up than his predecessors. International competitions, for club and country, will make this winter especially tricky for the German maestro. So, how are things currently shaping up?
First up is the fixture list. Chelsea has been dealt the awkward hand of a schedule that swings wildly between difficultly. The Blues already started the season off with a hefty run of strong teams and have just finished up the opposite. The return from break features Leicester away, Juventus at home ,and United at home in just the first week. A brief drop down with Watford is followed up by a trip to West Ham before the rest of December gets much kinder.
But, as December gets kind, January and February get mean. The Blues will face Liverpool, Manchester City, Tottenham, Arsenal, and Leicester within those two months, in addition to whatever the FA Cup and EFL Cup can throw at them. But there are more reasons why January and February could see the Blues rather hamstrung.
The Africa Cup of Nations and World Cup Qualifying will be two indirect means of weakening the Blues. Edouard Mendy will be away for the former and it is not unlikely the Blues will lose Christian Pulisic and Thiago Silva to the latter. Chelsea can obviously survive without those players, but they would much rather have them than not.
And somewhere in all of this will be the Club World Cup. The dates are undetermined but the Blues will be going to the United Arab Emirates at some point in early 2022 for two matches regardless of how they do. The travel alone will eat up a lot of time and will tighten the schedule as the Blues make up games. Ideally, it won’t be as bad as it was for Liverpool a few years ago who effectively had to throw the EFL Cup because of how close it was to Club World Cup, but it will still be a tricky balancing act.
Get to March intact and the Blues could very well be pushing for a massively successful season. Jose Mourinho and Antonio Conte both managed it previously and Tuchel too in his own way. But Tuchel’s team will have to be at their very best and avoid any slipups. It doesn’t take much for winter to reclaim what was gained in the fall.