Chelsea in the title race? Only if January goes near perfectly

In general, the term title race is used too often and definitely too early in the season. There was a point this season Tottenham topped the table and people talked title race. It’s a pretty overused and frankly meaningless term before at least matchday 19 and usually it takes longer than that to get a clear picture of who has the stamina to stay in it.

That being said, there are a few metrics such as goal difference that point to a very clear top three: Manchester City, Liverpool, and Chelsea. The gap between Chelsea and City currently sits at six points. That is somewhat remarkable given how relentless City seems to be while Chelsea has two wins, three draws, and a loss in the league since they beat Juventus in the Champions League. The Blues may have slipped and stumbled, but they haven’t fallen too far behind.

But the calculus is certainly shifting. The Blues can’t keep giving up ground because of how rare it is for City (or Liverpool) to do so. One of the fastest ways to regain ground on those two will be to beat them in the reverse fixtures. Which brings us (almost) to January.

Should fixtures continue this month, which is up in the air, Chelsea will play Aston Villa on Boxing Day and Brighton on the 29th. January, then, is a monster with huge implications. The Blues will play Liverpool and Manchester City back to back in the league (with an FA Cup match in between as things stand) and then they will round the month off with a Tottenham side that looks competent again. If the Blues want to be in the title race or even go all the way, it is pretty realistic that January is a month the Blues have to win out.

Again, there may be two fixtures before January which are still up in the air. Those games could also easily be rescheduled for January or later. But, all else the same, wins against Liverpool and City could put Chelsea three points off City and level with Liverpool (albeit with a worse GD). That’s assuming Chelsea matches City and Liverpool’s results while still beating both teams. If either Liverpool or City slip just once, the Blues can be in the driver’s seat once again.

The title won’t be outright decided with wins over City and Liverpool, but simply staying in the race through the winter will be something Chelsea hasn’t achieved since last winning the title. Honors even wouldn’t kick the Blues away either, though the Blues would have to rely much more on the kindness of other teams down the line. A loss to City certainly ends Chelsea’s chances bar City slipping up massively. Liverpool winning would also pull them ahead in a way that makes it difficult to see how the Blues will cover the ground.

So, the race won’t end in January but Chelsea’s task is clear. The Blues must win out the month to stay in a strong position in the race. No more struggling draws against midtable sides and they’ll still need to find their steel from last season on top of that. The path is clear and simple. The Blues just needs to break from the funk they find themselves in right now.