As players return, Thomas Tuchel’s hardest decisions are the forwards

Chelsea’s injury issues have ebbed and flowed all season. At one point it felt like the forward line was depleted. At another, the midfield pivot was bare. More recently, it feels as though the defense is slapped together with duct tape and hope. Only briefly did Thomas Tuchel have everyone fit and healthy.

On the surface, it may appear as though picking defenders is currently the biggest issue. Edouard Mendy is gone for AFCON, the starting wingbacks are both out for months, and it seems every game features a centerback leaving with an injury. But a makeshift defense is easier to compensate for with a press or shape that shields them from errors. Obviously one would rather have better players than not, but there are ways to minimize the effect of skill level off the ball to at least stall the opposition.

It is much harder to create chances and attacks. That relies on the quality of the player and the tactics the players find themselves in. As players return to fitness for Chelsea, Thomas Tuchel’s biggest selection headache comes up top. How can he pick forwards and in what setup?

It’s no real secret that Thomas Tuchel’s time at Chelsea hasn’t exactly been about goalscoring. He came in, shored up the defense first, and trusted the offense (or anyone really) to nick a goal. For the longest time, 2-0 was the most lopsided a score would get for Tuchel. That’s a big reason why he wanted a striker over the summer and the club splashed the cash for Romelu Lukaku.

Lukaku created a different set of issues though. Because he wasn’t going to press as much as other options, teammates either had to pick up the slack or the Blues had to sit deeper and go more direct. Seeing this, Tuchel put Chelsea into a 3-5-2 back when he had everyone available. In many ways, that benefited both Lukaku and Timo Werner. The two have historically played their best with a strike partner. Mason Mount would line up behind them as part of the midfield and use his sense of positioning to find the gaps needed to assist the strike pair.

But 3-5-2 runs into the issue of being very well suited for some players and very unsuited for others. Christian Pulisic and Kai Havertz can both play there and offer different things, but who they are paired with up top becomes even more important. Hakim Ziyech could fill a roll similar to Mount’s, but that cuts into his minutes significantly. And Callum Hudson-Odoi had a hard enough time getting chances at left wing. It seems unlikely he’d get many over Lukaku, Werner, Havertz, or Pulisic up top.

3-5-2 didn’t last long earlier in the season with both Lukaku and Werner spending significant periods of time on the side line. Tuchel instead returned to the 3-4-3, often with a “false” nine, to get through games. That formation won the Champions League but it hardly sets the scoring charts on fire. It does, however, offer more flexibility.

3-4-3 has largely come down to getting the trio up top right. When someone like Lukaku is playing, the box is occupied more consistently. That opens up room for the remaining two spots to be filled by creators who can get him the ball or control the play until a position opens up. Havertz (and Werner when he plays up top) will very rarely stay in the box and pin the defense. If there are only creators around them, then the possession can quickly get stale. That’s why someone like Pulisic tends to work better as he can arrive late into the box as those players vacate space.

Tuchel’s decision making when selecting the forwards largely comes down to that press and then what kind of chances need to be created. If the team is expected to have lots of possession even without the press, then Lukaku makes sense to start. If that possession is predicated on pressing, then Havertz is required.

Then it’s about whether or not the team creates by stretching or through attacking space. If they need to break the opposition down whenever they have the ball, that’s a point in favor of creators and the 3-4-3. If the Blues are attacking space, that’s the 3-5-2’s wheelhouse. If Chelsea needs to press while also attacking space, that’s 3-4-3 with Lukaku. Need to press but can only break the opposition down? Reenter the false nine with runners from the channels.

But the hardest thing of all is finding a role for everyone. Mount is the only player that has a guaranteed spot in all the variations Tuchel tends to use. Ziyech could play a Mount like role, but he often is only used on the opposite flank when extra creators are needed. Lukaku and Werner pair well with one another, but they are reliant on the types of attacks Chelsea is looking for. Havertz finds himself somewhat directly opposed to Lukaku as well, which is an awkward spot to be in for two of the club’s most expensive signings of all time. Then there is Pulisic and Hudson-Odoi who are competing with one another but who also only seem to pair well with one striker each. Pulisic with Havertz seems to be the smart play while Hudson-Odoi with Lukaku tends to work. But then what of Werner? And with the wingbacks injured, Hudson-Odoi and Pulisic may be removed from the conversation up top entirely sooner rather than later.

The right press and structure can sort out the defense regardless of who plays. But creating and choosing the right offensive group is much harder. Each opponent begs for different types of attacks but it’s very hard to know if the right group is selected on the day. As players return, this will be Tuchel’s biggest headache.