Chelsea was in the title race and now has to worry about top four, again

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. Chelsea, at some point before or during the winter, is top of the table or very close to it. Then, for almost no reason at all, the temperature drops and Chelsea follows it down the table. First, or near first, becomes second, third, and fourth. Suddenly the Blues go from nearly reaching the peak to backsliding into another top four slugfest.

It happened to Antonio Conte, Maurizio Sarri, Frank Lampard, and it is happening to Thomas Tuchel now. The Blues were flying high at the start of December. Things didn’t go well that month, but even at the start of January the Blues were just six points off top on Boxing Day. From Boxing Day to now, Chelsea pretty much had to get things perfect to stay in the title race. They did not and now look over their shoulder at top four.

A win against Aston Villa went mostly according to plan. Then the Blues drew Brighton. And Liverpool. A loss to Manchester City and one more draw to Brighton now sees the Blues 12 points off top. The title race is over. But that isn’t the main concern anymore. No, the main concern is the top four battle, again.

At 44 points in 23 games, the Blues sit third. West Ham in fourth have a game in hand and 37 points. No massive worry there. The concern is Tottenham who have a whopping four games in hand and an eight point gap to cover. Arsenal, with their three games in hand, have a nine point gap to cover.

Chelsea can only afford to slip behind one of those London teams and still make top four. Yes, the schedule gets easier for Chelsea but that doesn’t mean the form will return. The Blues play Tottenham next and though Thomas Tuchel’s side had complete control over Antonio Conte’s in two league cup fixtures, it is concerning that there is already a six pointer for top four when the title race six pointers just ended.

West Ham’s one game in hand is away to a Manchester United that can’t decide if they want to stay terrible or be resurgent. Tottenham’s four games in hand include the match against Chelsea, hosting Southampton and Wolverhampton, and going away to Manchester City. Chelsea aside, Conte’s Spurs are much better than they were previously and six points out of that run isn’t impossible. Arsenal’s three games in hand include hosting Burnley, going to Wolves, and then hosting Brentford. It’s been a bad month for Arsenal but their form before that can’t be ignored either. Nine points is very much on the table for them.

Chelsea can start to quiet this noise by beating Tottenham. They have already shown they can do that comfortably twice just this month and the third time cannot be the charm for Antonio Conte. Chelsea may have needed to beat both Liverpool and City to have a hope of the title but now they really need to see off Tottenham to keep top four from becoming yet another slugfest. Time away at the Club World Cup and on the “winter break” will make things hairy as the three London clubs play catch up and eventually surpass Chelsea on games played.

The Blues could fall out of fourth on paper while having games in hand. It would be best to simply stay in the top four while still having those games to increase the gap rather than needing to win those games to return to the plateau.