Are the Chelsea attackers being judged too harshly as of late?

There’s a general consensus around the fanbase that Chelsea’s forwards are not good enough to help the club compete in a title race. This is largely fueled by the fact that the Blues have scored much less than Manchester City and Liverpool, two teams that seem to be better placed to compete for a league title due to their years of team building and consistency. Are the Chelsea forwards being judged too harshly, are there ways in which they can improve and what could be the problem (if any) with the Chelsea attack?

This narrative of the Blues’ forward being worse than the attacking players at other clubs has inspired this in-depth look at the attacking numbers of the forwards at Chelsea, Manchester City and Liverpool. This piece looks into the chance creation, big chance creation and shooting statistics. The data has been adjusted to account for the fact that some of the players have played much more than others, and some figures are subject to game time. At the same time, being on the pitch doesn’t necessarily mean being on the ball, and so some statistics have been adjusted to account for the fact that some players have far more chances to make certain types of passes.

Are Chelsea’s forwards being judged too harshly? We search for the answer here

The purpose of this is to be as fair as possible and to determine if other forwards truly outperform the Blues’ forwards in every facet of attack or if the Blues’ scoring numbers are impacted by things greater than the ability of the attacking personnel.

Statistics are as of January 18, 2022:

Figure 1.1: Big chances per 90

Figure 1.1 shows that Chelsea’s four best creators are on par with the best creators of Liverpool and Manchester City. In terms of big chances created per 90, the Blues have three attackers who have created 0.3 big chances per 90 or more. This is one less than the number of forwards hitting this mark on the other teams. Chelsea’s Hakim Ziyech and Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah are the only ones from either team that create over 0.5 big chances per 90. Two forwards from Manchester City cross that mark, as well.

0.3 big chances per 90 roughly means a big chance every three games, which is decent for a Premier League forward, as big chances are very difficult to create. The figure shows that Ziyech, Salah and Manchester City duo Riyad Mahrez and Phil Foden are the more creative forwards across these three teams.

Note: Not all chances created are big chances, but all big chances are chances.

Figure 1.2: Key passes per 90

In terms of chances created per 90, it is unsurprising that Jack Grealish and Mahrez are the only forwards across all three teams that create 2.5 chances per 90, as shown in Figure 1.2. Both Manchester City players. The Citizens create the most chances in the league and that will turn out to be relevant later on.

Another interesting observation is that four of Chelsea’s six forwards create more than two chances per 90. Both charts so far show that the Blues are on par with the other teams in terms of creation. On par in that, while they don’t have identical numbers with the others forwards, their numbers aren’t glaringly lower than the others when they’ve been lower. Some of Chelsea’s forwards create more per 90 than Raheem Sterling, Sadio Mane, Diogo Jota and Salah.

To lay emphasis on the chance creation, why not check the frequency with which these forwards create chances/make key passes?