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Premier league experience should not be considered for Chelsea targets

By Olaoluwa Nwobodo

Chelsea's English striker Tammy Abraham (L) speaks with West Ham United's English midfielder Declan Rice (R) on the pitch after the English Premier League football match between Chelsea and West Ham United at Stamford Bridge in London on December 21, 2020. - Chelsea won the game 3-0. (Photo by John Walton / POOL / AFP) / RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE. No use with unauthorized audio, video, data, fixture lists, club/league logos or 'live' services. Online in-match use limited to 120 images. An additional 40 images may be used in extra time. No video emulation. Social media in-match use limited to 120 images. An additional 40 images may be used in extra time. No use in betting publications, games or single club/league/player publications. / (Photo by JOHN WALTON/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)
Chelsea's English striker Tammy Abraham (L) speaks with West Ham United's English midfielder Declan Rice (R) on the pitch after the English Premier League football match between Chelsea and West Ham United at Stamford Bridge in London on December 21, 2020. - Chelsea won the game 3-0. (Photo by John Walton / POOL / AFP) / RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE. No use with unauthorized audio, video, data, fixture lists, club/league logos or 'live' services. Online in-match use limited to 120 images. An additional 40 images may be used in extra time. No video emulation. Social media in-match use limited to 120 images. An additional 40 images may be used in extra time. No use in betting publications, games or single club/league/player publications. / (Photo by JOHN WALTON/POOL/AFP via Getty Images) /
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LONDON, ENGLAND – FEBRUARY 05: Romelu Lukaku of Chelsea reacts during the Emirates FA Cup Fourth Round match between Chelsea and Plymouth Argyle at Stamford Bridge on February 5, 2022 in London, England. (Photo by Craig Mercer/MB Media/Getty Images)
LONDON, ENGLAND – FEBRUARY 05: Romelu Lukaku of Chelsea reacts during the Emirates FA Cup Fourth Round match between Chelsea and Plymouth Argyle at Stamford Bridge on February 5, 2022 in London, England. (Photo by Craig Mercer/MB Media/Getty Images) /

Teammates and supporting cast

A case can be made that the most defining aspect of a player’s success or failure is the teammates he’s playing with. For a striker, having players who would always look to put you in good goal scoring positions would go a long way in determining how successful you are. You can be a magnificent finisher and still not score many goals. Strikers are judged on goals, but they often can’t determine the amount of goals they can score, as a player can only score a fraction the chances he gets.

This means that the fewer the chances a striker gets, the lower the chances of him scoring are. Many top strikers have prominent or competent chance creators around them. They’re seen as good strikers because they score a lot and they can score a lot because a lot of chances are created for them. A player could score a lot in a league, but he’s not scoring those goals because he was in that league, or because he has mastered the league. He scored those goals because of a number of things, one of which could be because his teammates have created enough chances for him to score that.

Far too often, a player has come to the Premier League, and not scored as much as he’s scored in previous leagues, and the narrative is immediately woven that he flopped in the league and is often said to be “unable to handle the league”, whereas the league has nothing to do with it. Sebastian Haller is an example of this. Haller was said to have flopped in the Premier league. He was scoring decently in the German Bundesliga before he was brought in to West Ham.

Most importantly, he had a magnificent finishing record in the Bundesliga, scoring 5/8 non penalty big chances in his first season at Eintracht Frankfurt, and 11/21 non penalty big chances in his second season. This conversion rate saw him score 9 goals and 15 goals respectively in the Bundesliga. In his first season at West Ham, he converted 4/10 non penalty big chances, seeing him score 7 goals in that season. He would go on to convert none of the 3 big chances created for him in 16 games in the following season. The point? Haller only underperformed his expected goals (xG) once in his four seasons between the Bundesliga and the Premier League. This was the first season at West Ham where he underperformed his xG by 1.48.

There’s more though, because a 40% big chance conversion is a good big chance conversion rate for a very good striker. Elite strikers/finishers range in the 45-50% big chance conversation rate bracket. In his first season at West Ham, Haller had an xG of 8.48 in 2248 minutes. This means that West Ham only created chances enough for him to score about nine goals that season. The more you look at it, the more it’s less of a Haller issue and more of an issue with chance creation. Haller’s track record shows he’s good at finding space and getting on the end of big chances. West Ham, of course, have never been the most expansive team, so strikers are likely to suffer for chances anyway. His second season was worse, as West Ham only created enough chances for him to score about three goals in 16 games, and three goals he scored!

Haller currently sits top of the Eredivisie scoring chart with 12 league goals in 20 games, having scored 23 goals in 39 games since his return to Ajax. He also sits top of the UEFA Champions League scoring chart with 10 goals in six games. Haller went from a team creating lots of good scoring chances for him, to a team that simply wasn’t, and then back to a team that was. No surprise his goal tally reflected that.

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