Chelsea: Can Kai Havertz become the best on Earth?

Kai Havertz has been billed as the best on Earth. Nearly two years into King Kai’s reign over Stamford Bridge, there still remain questions as to what his most effective role is within the team. The young German has been shoved around the pitch, lining up everywhere from right wing to central midfield to central attacking midfield to false nine to inside forward—the list goes on and on. His role and general position are chronically changing and so are the expectations. However, there needs to be a way to integrate him as a mainstay into the team alongside Romelu Lukaku before the end of this season.

There is massive pressure from the club perspective in both the short and long term to make Havertz and Lukaku a successful pairing. These players represent the first and second most expensive players in Chelsea’s history, respectively. Getting these individuals to succeed for the majority of their duration with the Blues is best for all parties involved. It goes without saying there is also a limit to this: assets can sometimes become a burden. Therefore, we must ask the question prompted by supporters’ chants, can Havertz still become one of the best on Earth?

Can Chelsea forward Kai Havertz truly become one of the best on Earth?

To date, the legacy of Havertz has been complicated at Chelsea. He has the most important goal over the last two seasons, but conversely, he has been incredibly inconsistent. This is highlighted by his passiveness in matches, the manager’s inability to find a consistent role and Havertz’s overall lack of production in the final third, despite his Champions League winning goal. This inconsistency has to be stopped, but how can Havertz be unlocked in a way that more than justifies the heavy investment that was made to acquire his services? Answering this question is probably better done by posing with another question: what are Havertz’s biggest strengths?

A quick view of Havertz’s scouting report for percentile stats across Europe’s top five leagues shows that he does not hit the above the 80th percentile in major attacking metrics. Specifically, the stat he hits the 80th percentile for is non-penalty expected goals, which seems like a good thing. However, Havertz is only in the 30th percentile for non-penalty goals scored. Even worse, he is only in the 21st percentile for goals scored.

Scoring is hardly the only role an attacker can have though, so here’s where he ranks in other categories. Havertz is posting great passing percentile stats for attackers. He ranks in the 90th percentile or better in passes completed, passes attempted, pass completion percentage, short pass completion percentage, medium pass completion percentage and long pass completion percentage. He is also in the 90th percentile or better for live passes, passes under pressure and ground passes.

Despite his great passing across the board, his chance creation does not hold up. His best percentile stat in chance creation metrics is at the 83rd percentile for fouls drawn that lead to a goal. His second-best chance creation metric is for the 78th percentile of shots that lead to another shot scoring a goal. All other statistics, including shot and goal creating actions, are in the 75th percentile or lower, with many hovering around the 50th percentile.

Somehow, Havertz is an excellent passer and pressure-resistant player that can also press opposition with the best of abilities, but he is not creating chances or scoring goals in the way that might be expected given his strengths elsewhere. This is partially attributed to the fact that Havertz has been shuffled around almost anywhere and everywhere in middle and attacking thirds of the pitch, as have many attackers under Thomas Tuchel. Havertz has also dealt with COVID-19 (twice) and injuries throughout his time in west London, as have other attackers. The bottom line is that more is needed, how to get the best out of him is a different story.

Going back to the idea that Havertz and Lukaku are the best financial interests for the club to mature and have succeed, both players’ success is likely going to be tied together. Already, half (five out of 10) of the goals that Lukaku has scored have come while playing with Havertz in attack. Given the chop and change in the Chelsea attack, this is a positively alarming statistic. This is something to build on and get both players firing, but the how remains to be seen.

Havertz seems to be best when given more of a free role to roam within and around the opponent’s box, specifically when drifting to wider areas. This allows for fluidity in attack, but more importantly, it can allow Havertz to draw defenders and zones with him as he drifts. If the drifting he is so good at opens up spaces, it could allow Lukaku to then play off the shoulder and run directly into those vacated spaces. Additionally, Havertz and Lukaku both have tendency to drift right, but this is easily avoidable by having Havertz drift and draw attention with or without the ball, which allows Lukaku to make the run toward the goal either in transition or the final third.

The German could be allowed to drift as a center forward or second striker behind Lukaku, albeit his role would likely function more similarly to a central attacking midfielder. Either way, the same principle remains: Havertz can occupy attacking zones just outside the opponents box, drift in and around the opponent’s box, draw defenders and open space for others. This is an acceptable role, the Blues just need more out of their wunderkind. Given Havertz’s passing metrics, he has passing in his locker, the chance creation is still lacking though.

The vision that is required to anticipate, time, weight and play passes that lead to created chances is a difficult thing to do. Luckily, Havertz is still learning and improving. Time is on his side to develop this part of his game, as well. It will be worth monitoring if a back four formation is preferred in the future. If it is, Havertz seems a natural, lethal fit for the central attacking midfield role in a 4-2-3-1, or any variation of the base formation. The key to remember with the German is that formations will not always be indicative of his role, nor will they be a rigid structure that he will be confined to be positioned within for the entire match. He will roam the pitch and occupy zones that open spaces for others and creates chances.

I am creeping around the idea that Havertz needs to become Chelsea’s variation of a Raumdeuter, similar to Thomas Muller at Bayern Munich. This may be an evolution that takes time and patience, but Havertz seems the most likely to be able to replicate his compatriot’s unique role. Havertz will not necessarily be the same as Muller, and that is another important reminder that all players are unique. Havertz should try to study under Muller as much as possible while away at German National Team duties. If he can at all replicate the abilities and tactical role that the elder German legend represents, Chelsea will have a blossoming, highly unique attacking talent at the club that can span multiple eras and managers.

Do you believe Havertz can reach these heights? Let us know in the comments or on Twitter!