Chelsea vs Lille: UCL Round of 16 gambling guide

Unlike in many earlier years, the Champions League Round of 16 draw was kind to Chelsea in 2021/22. The reigning European Champions pulled Lille, last season’s Ligue 1 winner, who is struggling to replicate its past form and currently sit 11th in the French top flight. While les Dogues are certainly not as dangerous as they were in the previous campaign, the Blues are not at their top level either. The squad needs to maintain maximum focus to avoid a disastrous first leg upset in west London.

Despite a number of worrying injuries in Chelsea’s camp, the oddsmakers seem extremely confident of a victory for the English side. The Blues’ odds on the moneyline (-330) don’t provide a lot of value in this match, so I’ll be looking at bets away from the final result more than I normally would. Cooking up a parlay that includes Chelsea ML is also an enticing option that should provide enough juice to put a plus sign in front of the number.

Here is your gambling guide to Chelsea’s UCL Round of 16 first leg tie with Lille

Supporters should remember the last time these two teams met in the Champions League, during the 2019/20 group stage in which the Blues snuck past Lille on the final matchday to advance to the knockout phase. Both clubs have since changed managers, so there won’t be many stylistic similarities between the previous encounter and this one. The intensity of the game should be palpable though, with longtime servants of the French side like Jose Fonte and Jonathan Bamba leading a talented young core into an extremely hostile environment at Stamford Bridge.

Chelsea’s defense was immense against Crystal Palace over the weekend and will need to be again on Tuesday if the Blues have any hope of advancing into the UCL quarterfinals. The back line of Andreas Christensen, Thiago Silva, Antonio Rudiger and Malang Sarr looked particularly strong in the air, which will be crucial against Lille’s physical strike partnership that thrives off service from its speedy teammates on the wings. Additionally, les Dogues are in the middle of a serious goal drought and haven’t scored more than once in a match in over a month. I’m backing Chelsea to continue this trend and might even look toward the team’s clean sheet prop at -140 odds.

There is one Lille player to bet on potentially scoring a goal though, and that is Jonathan David at +395 odds. The 22-year-old has really stepped into his own for both club and country this season, collecting 25 goals in all competitions and leading Canada to the top spot in the CONCACAF World Cup Qualifying table. I’m a big believer in star players being “due” to score after a long time out of the goals and David hasn’t found the back of the net since the end of December. I especially love this bet for the emotional hedge.

Official odds (via WynnBet as of February 21)

Chelsea ML: -330
Lille ML: +1050
Draw: +440
Over/Under: 2.5 (-130/+105)

My Picks

I think Chelsea will come out on top in this contest, but its -330 odds are really pushing me away from the moneyline. I’m actually going to stay away from betting a final result at all and instead focus on the props. Give me under 2.5 total goals in the match at -130 and a yes for the Chelsea clean sheet at -140. I’m also going to predict a third straight scoreless first 45 in a match involving the World Champions by taking under 0.5 first half goals at +215 odds. I hate to be the guy that roots against action, but this game reeks of another boring Blues victory.

What bets are you going to place? Let us know in the comments or on Twitter!