Keep or sell: Evaluating Armando Broja’s future at Chelsea

If Albert Einstein’s definition of insanity—doing the exact thing over and over and expecting different results—is correct then Chelsea fans are certifiably insane. Year after year, supporters watch as the Blues fail to muster a clinical attack, and year after year, we convince ourselves that a new signing will unlock our full potential. Kai Havertz, Romelu Lukaku and even Timo Werner have shown us that this recurring hope has not served Chelsea particularly well.

While there is still an opportunity for the narrative to change, specifically for Lukaku and Havertz, fans are struggling with doubt, wondering if the attack will ever truly be consistent enough to challenge for the elusive Premier League title. It should serve as no shock that the emergence of Cobham’s own Armando Broja has created a spark among Chelsea faithful, who believe that the young striker is an up-and-coming world class caliber player. Amidst all of this excitement, a question begs to be asked. Is Broja destined to be the next generational Blues striker or should the club sell him to maximize his current value?

What should Chelsea do this summer with striker Armando Broja, keep or sell?

Before coming to a conclusion regarding Broja and his future, it’s important to first assess who he is a player, how his career trajectory compares to other high-caliber Premier League strikers and how he would fit into Thomas Tuchel’s plans in SW6.

Scouting report

Broja’s season started with questions regarding his readiness and ability to assimilate into Saints’ starting XI. It was through sheer ambition that the young striker ascended and rapidly positioned himself to be counted amongst some of the Premier League’s biggest surprises in the 2021/22 campaign. In just 25 matches at Southampton, he has amassed eight goals, one assist and 24 shot-creating actions across all competitions.

Statistically speaking, Broja fits the archetype of a traditional pressing-forward. This may come as a surprise to those who do not watch him often, but Broja’s biggest strength is his work rate and aggression. Currently, he ranks among the league’s best in successful pressures (80th percentile), pressures in the attacking third (89th percentile) and in interceptions (80th percentile)—proving that his greatest value is felt by chasing down opponents.

If ruthlessness out of position is the foundation for Broja’s success, his ability to make plays after winning the ball back is what elevates him into a future star. When it comes to progressive carries in open space, Broja is lethal. Simply put, he creates goals by dribbling at defenders and leveraging his quickness and physicality to put opponents at a disadvantage. Among all players in the English top flight, Broja is in the top 30 percent in progressive carries and progressive carry distance.

Hearing all of this may be bringing a smile to Blues fans who are hopeful Broja can help solve a seemingly perpetual issue in front of goal. Caution is advised, however, as his game isn’t perfect. Sure, the young striker may find incredible success in the open field, but there’s a different story to be told when evaluating him in front of goal.

Southampton is not known for a build-up style of play and lack of exposure to Chelsea’s traditional possession-based tactic may prove to be a significant obstacle to Broja, should he have loftier goals in his future. At the time of this writing, the Albanian international finds himself in the bottom half of the league in touches in the penalty area and he has not exactly shown an adeptness when competing in aerial duels. Combine these points with the fact that he gets dispossessed a whopping 3.30 times per 90 (worse than 96 percent of the league) and there is a reasonable case for concern regarding his ability to be a focal point in a single-striker attack.

All things considered, the data and tape show that this is an unrefined—but talented—player. At this point in his development, few would consider Broja a clinical striker. Nevertheless, it’s undeniable to see that the young player is oozing with potential. Currently, he is averaging 0.44 goals per 90, 0.43 xG per 90 and 1.17 shots on target per match with a conversion rate of 38 percent. By taking an opportunity to compare Broja to other high-profile strikers in their first full season in the Premier League, it’s easy to see why the buzz is only growing around the youngster.

The following stat lines are comparisons of players in their first full year in the Premier League with a minimum of 20 matches played. They are listed in the order of player name, goals plus assists per 90, shots on target per 90, goals per shots on target and points-per-match:

Armando Broja: 0.44/1.17/0.38/1.33
Tammy Abraham: 0.72/1.66/0.34/1.73
Dominic Calvert-Lewin: 0.19/0.72/0.27/1.25
Diogo Jota: 0.42/1.27/0.31/2.11
Gabriel Jesus: 0.79/1.62/0.43/2.69
Harry Kane: 0.73/1.64/0.40/1.85
Romelu Lukaku: 0.47/1.29/0.20/1.19