Chelsea at Burnley: Complete Premier League gambling guide

It’s often said that results are more important than performances during a successful season and Chelsea is certainly buying into that mentality at the moment. The Blues trailed twice during their midweek FA Cup tie against Luton Town, but somehow managed to outlast the Hatters, 3-2, and advance into the quarterfinals. The team’s reward? A date with a surging Burnley side who split the points at Stamford Bridge back on November 6.

Perhaps the oddsmakers were more impressed with the victory at Luton than I was because Chelsea is still heavily favored in Saturday’s Premier League encounter. The odds have been moving further and further in favor of the European Champions as kickoff nears, so I would recommend placing moneyline bets on the Blues as soon as possible. There’s no worse feeling than finding out your friends got better odds for getting in early.

Here is your gambling guide to the league match between Chelsea and Burnley

The January transfer window seems to have been a turning point for this Clarets side, which looked destined for next season’s Championship toward the end of 2021. The key arrival of Dutch international Wout Weghorst, though, has transformed Sean Dyche’s squad into something the brooding redhead probably never presided over before in his managerial career: a competent and dynamic attacking team. The 6’6 striker’s goal and two assists in seven matches don’t accurately reflect his impact on Burnley’s attack, and at +900 odds, I won’t hesitate to throw a flyer on Weghorst finding the back of the net.

Fortunately for Chelsea, the Dutchman probably won’t be facing the same back line that was deployed on Wednesday. Credit to Ruben Loftus-Cheek, he did his best while being played out of position and made a real difference once he was moved into midfield, but I don’t think he has much of a future in defense. With more experienced heads, namely Thiago Silva, likely returning to the starting XI, there should be fewer breakaway opportunities for opposing attackers. Subsequently, fewer goals against the Blues, as well.

One interesting trend to watch out for is Chelsea’s recent ability to find the decisive goal in a match. The Blues have scored last in six of their previous seven games with the only exception coming in the Carabao Cup final versus Liverpool, which finished scoreless after extra time. There isn’t a ton of value in this play, but the Chelsea to score the final goal prop (-235) seems to be a pretty safe bet. I especially love it as part of a parlay. For what it’s worth, parlaying this prop with the Weghorst anytime goal gets you +1326 odds.

Official odds (via WynnBet as of March 4)

Chelsea ML: -210
Burnley ML: +700
Draw: +325
Over/Under: 2.5 (+105/-135)

My picks

Per usual, I’m riding with the Blues on the moneyline (-210) against the Clarets. I’ll also take the aforementioned Chelsea to score the final goal prop at -235. I’m really torn with my last pick, so I’m going to let you, my dear reader, decide how you want to play this. I’m extremely confident that the Burnley under 1.5 goals prop is going to hit in this match. Unfortunately, so are the oddsmakers, and they have set the line for this bet at -800. The Chelsea clean sheet prop has much better odds (-120), but I’m not totally convinced that it’s going to happen. So, if you’re feeling lucky, I recommend betting the clean sheet, but Burnley under 1.5 goals is much safer.

What are some of the picks you’ll be looking to make? Let us know in the comments or on Twitter!