History favors Chelsea to beat Real Madrid in the Champions League

Chelsea has only lost a handful of times this season. Thomas Tuchel had been bested by only Juventus, Manchester City (x2) and West Ham—a fairly impressive record—heading into the final international break of the competition. However, in the Blues’ return to action, the manager suffered his most inexcusable defeat of the current campaign. Chelsea was played off the pitch by west London rival Brentford, conceding four unanswered goals immediately after Antonio Rudiger scored a second half screamer to put the home side ahead.

Many regard the game as a fluke for the Blues, similar to the 5-2 loss to West Brom last year, but other supporters are worried about what it means for the upcoming fixtures. Chelsea is now rounding the corner and heading into the home stretch of the 2021/22 season. Tuchel’s men will play some of the most important matches of the campaign as they look to secure top four in the Premier League, lift an FA Cup title and defend their Champions League crown. The latter will require beating Real Madrid over two legs to inch closer to achieving their goal. Luckily, history favors the Blues in the match-up between two of Europe’s most formidable forces.

History favors Chelsea over Real Madrid in the Champions League quarterfinals

One only needs to look back to last season’s UEFA Champions League semifinals to find the most recent meeting between the two sides. Chelsea defeated some familiar faces in Thibaut Courtois, Eden Hazard and the rest of the Real Madrid squad en route to its Champions League triumph. The Blues earned a hard-fought 1-1 draw in the Spanish capital (the game was not played in the Santiago Bernabeu, which needs to be noted) before returning home and winning 2-0.

The 3-1 aggregate victory marked the legitimate return of Tuchel’s side to the upper echelons of European football after what was deemed as an “easy” draw against Porto in the quarterfinal. While there is no doubting Los Blancos’ status as one of—if not the—the world’s biggest clubs, the Blues have been a thorn in their side throughout history. The two historic clubs have met five times over the last five decades and the Spanish giants haven’t won a single contest. Chelsea has emerged victorious three of those times and earned draws in the other two matches.

History is surely on the side of the London outfit, but that means absolute nothing when the two teams take the pitch. It’s worth noting that although Real Madrid lost an arguably better manager in Zinedine Zidane since the last time the clubs met, Carlo Ancelotti is no pushover. Ancelotti has Los Blancos back on top of La Liga and he’s done an excellent job in his first season back in Spain. Real Madrid looks like a much improved team from the one that came to London last year thanks to a handful of excellent additions, like David Alaba and Eduardo Camavinga.

The same can be said for Chelsea too though. The Blues have more consistency up front as Romelu Lukaku is almost always good for a goal when he plays and Kai Havertz has finally found his footing in west London. Last year’s UCL semifinal tie—despite being played later on in the tournament—felt like a scrap between an underdog and an overachieving powerhouse. But when Chelsea and Real Madrid face off beginning on Wednesday, it’s undeniably going to be a heavyweight bout between two of the continent’s most successful clubs.

Who do you think takes the first leg? Let us know your thoughts in the comments or on Twitter!