Chelsea vs Real Madrid: Champions League gambling guide

I’m just going to pretend that Saturday’s match never happened. The Blues were simply outworked and outclassed on their home ground by a highly-energetic Brentford side that undoubtedly deserved all three points. Apart from Antonio Rudiger’s wonder strike, which tragically went to waste in the defeat, there were no real positive takeaways for Chelsea. I say just flush that result down the drain and keep it moving.

Additionally, thanks to impressive performances by Crystal Palace and Leicester City, the Blues’ standing in the Premier League table remains relatively unchanged. Thomas Tuchel and his squad can fully turn their attention to the Champions League. Real Madrid will travel to Stamford Bridge on Wednesday evening and, for the first time since the League Cup final against Liverpool, there is a plus sign for Chelsea on the moneyline. The European Champions are still favorites over Los Blancos, but I like the value for a lot of bets in this game.

Here is the gambling guide to the first leg Champions League quarterfinal tie between Chelsea and Real Madrid at Stamford Bridge

Every supporter will remember last season’s UCL semifinal against Real Madrid, in which Chelsea advanced 3-1 on aggregate thanks to goals from Christian Pulisic, Timo Werner and Mason Mount. Since then, the Spanish champions-elect have improved a lot, with Karim Benzema and Vinicius Jr. forming a partnership that arguably should’ve catapulted the Frenchman to the top of the Ballon d’Or voting. The Blues’ defense will need a dramatic refocusing, and probably a change in formation, from the weekend if it is to successfully curtail Los Blancos’ dynamic duo. I wouldn’t be mad at anyone making an emotional hedge on Benzema anytime goalscorer at +165 odds.

I do think, though, that this match will have the typical caginess of a first leg Champions League tie, especially one that includes the Club World Champions. I’m actually surprised that the over/under number is 2.5 goals on WynnBet, but I’m happy to take advantage of what seems to be a pretty obvious choice in the under. Especially with Carlo Ancelotti sidelined with COVID-19, Real Madrid will be comfortable sitting deep in defense and waiting until next week’s contest at the Santiago Bernabeu to make a move. It goes against my better judgement as a fan, but I’m slamming under 2.5 total goals at -140.

One new bet that caught my attention for this match is Chelsea to win either half (-165). The Blues have won at least one half in six of their last seven matches and, interestingly, it has been the second half four of those six times. I’ll be staying away from Chelsea second half ML since it burned me on Saturday, but there is definitely decent value in the bet at +150 odds. Give me the safer pick this time, but best of luck to my friends who are feeling lucky.

Official odds (via WynnBet as of April 5)

Chelsea ML: +110
Real Madrid ML: +280
Draw: +238
Over/Under: 2.5 (+115/-140)

My Picks

I haven’t taken Chelsea on the moneyline in about a month, but I’m back betting with my heart and taking the Blues +110 to win. What could possibly go wrong? As previously mentioned, I love, love, love under 2.5 total goals in the match (-140) and I am really expecting the ball to find the back of the net only once. Finally, give me Chelsea to win either half at -165 odds. These are safe bets, no doubt, but I’m trying to bust out of a six-pick skid. Let’s be smart and make some money on Wednesday.

What are some of the bets you’ll be placing? Let us know in the comments or on Twitter!