Chelsea vs West Ham United: Premier League gambling guide

I really thought all of the doomsday predictions I saw on Twitter in the lead up to the Arsenal match were unnecessarily alarmist, but I guess I was wrong. Chelsea, with an albeit weakened starting XI, absolutely gifted the Gunners three points thanks to individual mistakes and lapses in concentration. Both of Eddie Nkhetia’s goals were worthy of a hole through the television had they happened against me in FIFA and the Blues’ attack wasn’t potent enough to compensate for Andreas Christensen and Malang Sarr’s mental miscues. It was an incredibly frustrating loss which was made even worse by the fact that it came against our cross-town rivals.

Time to turn the page, though. Sunday’s meeting with West Ham will be equally, if not more, challenging. The Hammers are well-rested and hungry to continue fighting for their outside shot at making the top four. I’m not confident that the Blues will pull out the victory, so I probably won’t be betting on the final result at all. This is going to be a prop-heavy article, which is always fun, so be prepared to spread your money around with smaller bets.

Here is your gambling guide for the Premier League match between Chelsea and West Ham

The past four matches between these two London sides have been exciting affairs, with 14 goals being scored in total over the combined 360 minutes. This edition will hopefully continue that trend, so give me the over on 2.5 total goals scored. This bet would have hit for seven of the Blues’ last ten games, including four of the previous five. Unfortunately, Chelsea was only victorious in two of these high-scoring encounters, which is pretty on-brand for a team that won the Champions League last season thanks in large part to defensive excellence. Thomas Tuchel will have to make adjustments because of this poor form at the back, as West Ham’s forwards can be particularly difficult to contain.

One interesting note about David Moyes’ side is the disparity between its performances in the first and second halves of matches. The Hammers are the 10th best team in the Premier League during the first 45’, with a goal difference of 0 during the period, but are 5th best during the second half with a +9 goal difference. For this reason, I’m monitoring both Chelsea first half moneyline at +110 odds and West Ham second half ML at +475. I’m leaning towards the former because I think the Blues need to respond with a strong performance from the opening whistle after the midweek defeat. The latter, though, makes sense for a small-unit play considering the value.

Official odds (via WynnBet as of April 23)

Chelsea ML: -190

West Ham ML: +525

Draw: +340

Over/Under: 2.5 (-135/+110)

My picks

It’s tough to admit, but I really think a draw is the best-case scenario for Chelsea on Sunday. West Ham was victorious in this season’s wild first rendition of the derby, so I’m expecting a similar result in a similar frenetic manner. I’ll take the over at 2.5 goals (-135) and the aforementioned CFC first half ML prop at +110 as well. My final pick is a long shot as I’m looking to hit my first anytime goalscorer bet of the season. It won’t be for one of the Blues, though. Jarrod Bowen is one of the most underrated wingers in the EPL, in my opinion, and the diminutive Englishman always seems to perform well in the biggest moments. I’ll bet him to find the back of the net at +390 odds.

What the some picks you’ll be choosing? Let us know on Twitter!