Chelsea at Manchester United: Premier League gambling guide

To call the past few weeks at Chelsea a rollercoaster would be the understatement of the century. The highs, most notably the team’s 6-0 win over Southampton and its incredible—albeit incomplete—comeback against Real Madrid at the Bernabeu, have been incredibly high. Conversely, the lows—such as the spankings by cross-town rivals and reported imminent departures of key defensive pieces—have been heartbreakingly disappointing. It feels like the ultimate success of this Blues season hinges on the result of the FA Cup final, which is eerily similar to the sensation I had ahead of last year’s UCL final, which ultimately turned out for the best. With the way the European champions’ matches against Liverpool have been officiated up to this point, though, I’m not expecting anything from the day at Wembley.

Let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves. Thomas Tuchel and his squad still have a few big tests in the Premier League that should serve as good conditioning for the culmination of England’s most famous cup competition. The first of which will come against arguably the most disjointed Manchester United side that has ever graced the pitch at Old Trafford. Man United’s brand is so well-known that the bookmakers will almost always fall into the trap of valuing the Red Devils too highly, and Thursday’s contest is no exception. The plus sign in front of Chelsea moneyline is calling my name!

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Here is the gambling guide to Chelsea’s Premier League match at Man United

The main reason for my confidence heading into this match is the sheer number of injuries plaguing Man United’s squad at the moment. Six players—including Jadon Sancho, Paul Pogba and Harry Maguire—will be absent for the Blues’ visit to the Theatre of Dreams. This will force Ralf Rangnick to get creative with his team selection. I wouldn’t be shocked if the soon-to-be Sporting Director includes several young players in the starting XI, which should be an advantage for a more experienced side in the reigning Club World Cup Champions. With Mateo Kovacic being the only Chelsea player missing due to injury, I expect Tuchel to deploy a strong line-up and secure all three points at +120 odds.

While a number of jokes about Maguire and Man United’s defense have made the rounds on social media, there hasn’t been much serious discussion about how truly awful the back line has been. The Red Devils have conceded 51 goals in the Premier League this season, including nine in their previous three matches. This is good for eighth-most in the division and certainly more than any other team fighting for a place in Europe. The Blues’ faster forwards like Timo Werner and Christian Pulisic should have success making runs into the space behind defenders. As long as the team’s midfielders can provide quality service, I’m predicting that the ball will find the back of David de Gea’s net at least twice. Any Chelsea team goal total over 1.5 is worth keeping an eye on.

Official odds (via WynnBet as of April 28)

Chelsea ML: +120
Manchester United ML: +238
Draw: +255
Over/Under: 2.5 (-120/+100)

My picks

I really can’t believe some of the value on these pro-Chelsea bets. A lot of safer plays have plus signs in front of them, including my first pick, the Blues on the moneyline (+120). I also really like the European champs to score over 1.5 goals in the match at +100 odds. If you’re feeling dangerous, I think over 2.5 team goals at +325 odds is a great price, as well. For my final pick, though, I’m playing it very safe and taking Chelsea to win either half at -165. Taking only plus-juice plays, while exhilarating, is generally a recipe for disaster.

What are some of the betting lines that intrigue you? Let us know your thoughts in the comments or on Twitter!