Chelsea at Leeds United: Premier League betting guide

Last weekend was probably one of the most frustrating in all my years as a Chelsea supporter. The Blues were denied three important points against a cross-town rival because of incompetent officiating at the hands of Anthony Taylor yet again. While I won’t be drawn into silly discussions about agendas and biases, I think it’s fair to criticize these Premier League referees who are clearly incapable of utilizing VAR correctly. Regardless, Thomas Tuchel and his players must turn their attention to a Leeds United side that seems intent on causing chaos up and down the Premier League table this season.

Jesse Marsch already raised the stakes by saying he was disappointed in the English FA for allowing the Blues’ German tactician to roam the touchline on Sunday following his row with Antonio Conte last weekend. Tensions will certainly be running high—as they always are between Chelsea and Leeds—so I’m expecting to see a wide-open, frenetic affair. Conor Gallagher could also make his first start of the season and he has been known to provide energy in the midfield. I’m confident we’ll see another entertaining fixture, if nothing else, but let’s just hope this one can be judged more fairly.

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Here is the betting guide to Chelsea’s Premier League match against Leeds

Recent history would suggest that the Blues will take at least one point from this contest, as the former European Champions haven’t lost to the Whites in almost two decades. The five most recent meetings between these two sides have been particularly one-sided, with the Blues outsourcing Leeds 14-4 in total. It doesn’t seem to matter who is playing, where they are playing or when, Chelsea simply dominates this match-up.

I predict this trend will continue, which is pushing me toward many of the away side’s prop bets. Its goal total is currently set at 1.5, so I’m loving the over at -185 odds. While I was pleased with the Blues’ attacking play against Spurs, their defense has been uncharacteristically porous to start the new campaign. They surrendered 18 shots in the first two matches, nine of which were on target, leading me to believe at the balls will start to find the back of the net more consistently.

A new signing would do a lot to bolster Chelsea’s back line, making the rumors of an upcoming bid for Wesley Fofana in the range of £80 million more believable. Until reinforcements arrive though, I’d expect to continue seeing a barrage of shots at Edouard Mendy week-in and week-out. The both teams to score prop at -145 makes a lot of sense to me for this reason.

Official odds (via DraftKings as of August 20)

Chelsea ML: -180
Leeds United ML: +475
Draw: +340
Over/Under: 2.5 (-155/+125)

My picks:

Exciting news: for the first time since the beginning of the betting guide series, we can use multiple sportsbooks to find picks. Big shoutout to WynnBet, who we will definitely check in with for the future, but the lines for Sunday are provided by DraftKings. I’m hoping to avoid a wobble with the change, but I’m super excited to have so many more options for each match.

I have to honor this abundance by betting on something outside-the-box against Leeds: shot totals. I’m particularly intrigued by Mason Mount to have one or more shots on target at -175 odds and I will select that with my first pick. My final two will be the aforementioned Chelsea over 1.5 total goals (-185) and both teams to score (-145) props. Riding the favorites has been very profitable over the first two matchweeks, so I don’t see any reason to stop now.

What are some of the bets you’ll be placing? Let us know in the comments or on Twitter!