Chelsea at Southampton: Premier League betting guide

Following a disappointing defeat at Leeds United a few weeks ago, I was pleasantly surprised at the fight and determination displayed by the Chelsea squad against Leicester City. Conor Gallagher’s needless red card could’ve sent the team into a tailspin, but the remaining 10 players put in a solid performance. It was all capped off by two moments of magic from Raheem Sterling as the Blues came away with all three points. I hadn’t seen that kind of counter-attacking football at Stamford Bridge since Antonio Conte was roaming the sidelines, and I personally found it refreshing to see the team put in a gritty defensive shift. More of the same in the future, please.

The next month of matches will be important in deciding the 2022/23 Premier League champion, despite it being so early in the season. Each team will be playing an extremely condensed schedule because of the winter World Cup in Qatar, with games coming every three or four days until the international break at the end of September. Chelsea’s first test during this gauntlet, Southampton away, will be no easy conquest. Saints have only taken four points from their first four, but Ralph Hasenhuttl is undoubtedly a talented manager in charge of a young, up-and-coming squad with unheralded stars in Kyle Walker-Peters and James Ward-Prowse. Giving the Blues moneyline odds of -170 is a nasty trick by the bookmakers at FanDuel, but I might just get suckered in.

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Here is your complete betting guide to Tuesday’s Premier League match between Chelsea and Southampton

Comparing match results this early in a campaign is normally a pretty useless exercise, but the fact that Chelsea and Southampton have already played three of the same sides actually makes it worthwhile. Interestingly, the Blues were held even at Spurs, dismantled by Leeds and beat Leicester 2-1. Meanwhile, Saints were dominated by Tottenham, drew at home against the Whites and also defeated the Foxes 2-1. Even more astoundingly, both teams’ fourth match finished with a scoreline of 1-0, although the recent European Champions took three points from Everton, whereas the St. Mary’s faithful returned home disappointed at the hands of Manchester United.

There really isn’t much between Chelsea and Southampton this season, as shown by recent results, so I’m expecting an even contest all-around. I also think the home crowd will give Saints an early confidence boost, so I wouldn’t be shocked if they came away with the first goal. The Blues are the more talented side though, and they should be able to find the back of the net at some point during the 90’. I’m liking both teams to score at -142 odds.

I’m also going to ride the over at 2.5 goals (-146 odds), like I did against Leicester. Both of these teams have taken part in some serious barn-burners and over 2.5 has hit in six of their eight combined matches. Additionally, the fact that four or more goals have been scored in three of the past five Chelsea-Southampton match-ups makes betting the over a near no-brainer.

Official odds (via FanDuel as of August 29)

Chelsea ML: -170
Southampton ML: +460
Draw: +320
Over/Under: 2.5 (-146/+120)

My picks:

Despite the fact that they’ve been on the wrong end of two 9-0 scorelines in the past few seasons, I really do admire Saints—especially Hasenhuttl. I’m genuinely concerned about Tuesday’s final result for the Blues, which is why I’ll be neutral with my first two picks. I’ll take the both teams to score prop (-142) and over 2.5 total goals (-146), with odds provided by FanDuel. For my final pick, I’m going total homer. Reece James has been a top five player in the Premier League this year, in my opinion, and he has proven himself to be the best right back in England. I love the value on his score or assist prop at +185, so I’ll chase the plus juice with that bet.

What are some of the bets you’ll be making for this match? Let us know your thoughts in the comments or on Twitter!