Well, Chelsea’s dominant run finally came to an end, as it was bound to at some point, against Brentford on Wednesday. Taking a point away at the Gtech Community Stadium wasn’t a horrible result, especially considering the Bees probably would’ve won had Kepa Arrizabalaga not turned in another standout performance.
Despite having 66 percent possession, the Blues created fewer expected goals than its opposition, 0.86 to 1.25, and managed the same number of shots on target, five. Armando Broja showed great energy in his first EPL start in the famous blue jersey, so I’ll cut him some slack for failing to find the back of the net. However, Graham Potter bringing on Christian Pulisic and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang was incredibly influential and could’ve been decisive had the substitutions happened earlier in the contest. I’d be shocked if either the American or Gabonese didn’t start against Manchester United on Saturday.
The headlines for the weekend’s clash have already been written by the Red Devils, though, with Cristiano Ronaldo being banished from the squad after refusing to come on as a sub against Tottenham midweek. The legendary No. 7’s relationship with his manager, Erik ten Hag, has been the subject of much media speculation throughout the early part of the season, and it seems as though this most recent dispute will be the final act of his second stint at Old Trafford. With many paying attention to the off-the-pitch drama, we gamblers will focus on the football and hopefully come away with a few extra dollars in our pockets.
I think the oddsmakers have a pretty solid read on this match as kickoff approaches, with Chelsea currently sitting as +110 favorites on the moneyline. I’m not sure I want to touch the final result, though, as Manchester United has been a very tricky opponent for the Blues in past league meetings. The club from the capital hasn’t beaten the Red Devils in the Premier League since 2017, and the previous four clashes between these two sides have all ended in draws.
Graham Potter, on the other hand, has been extremely successful in his recent encounters with United. He even won at Old Trafford in this season’s opening match as the manager of Brighton, with Pascal Gross scoring twice in the 2-1 victory. Gross was deployed on the right wing of a 3-4-3, so whoever plays furthest forward on that flank will likely be the key man in Chelsea’s attack. Raheem Sterling (+700), Pulisic (+750), and Mason Mount (+850) are all contenders to start in that position, so I see them as solid options for anytime goalscorer props.
Another prop bet I’m monitoring is the Blues to have under 6.5 corner kicks at -154 odds. I’m not sure where this number came from, as Chelsea has gone over six corners in three games all year, while United has conceded more than six corners only twice. Neither team is particularly dangerous in the air, so I wouldn’t expect amassing dead ball opportunities to be part of either manager’s strategy.
Official odds (via FanDuel as of October 21)
Chelsea ML: +110
Manchester United ML: +250
Draw: +240
Over/Under: 2.5 (-112/-108)
My Chelsea picks:
I don’t love the value of many of my reliable plays for this match so I’m going outside the box with a few of these picks. One is the aforementioned CFC under 6.5 corners prop at -154. I’ll also take the Blues to win either half at -166 odds, as well as under 2.5 total goals scored at -108. I have a gut feeling we’re not going to see an exciting footballing spectacle between these two titans of the English game, but at least we can profit while being bored. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.