Chelsea at Brighton: EPL betting guide and tips

Well, well, well, it’s no surprise what the storylines will be heading into Chelsea’s match against Brighton this Saturday. Graham Potter will return to his former stomping grounds for the first time since departing the south coast less than two months ago. The Englishman’s three-year stint at the helm was one of the most successful in club history, as he extended Brighton’s record consecutive season streak in the top flight to five.

Potter also oversaw the Seagulls’ best-ever point tally in 2021/22, when they finished ninth with 51 points. Needless to say, it will be an emotional return to the Amex for the Blues’ gaffer, especially considering how recently he changed jobs. However, there’s still work to be done against a group of players that is acutely familiar with the CFC manager’s tactics. Collecting three points won’t be an easy task by any stretch of the imagination.

These two sides’ respective forms have been moving in opposite directions since Potter arrived at Stamford Bridge. Brighton started the campaign incredibly hot, winning four of its six matches before the managerial change, but has seriously fallen off since. The Seagulls have now taken only two points from their previous five contests, and new boss Roberto De Zerbi is under serious pressure to turn things around quickly.

Chelsea, on the other hand, is flying high. The former European champs are still undefeated with Potter in charge and sit just outside the EPL top four. The oddsmakers evidently aren’t too impressed with this recent form, though, as they have the Blues listed at +145 odds for the match. That number has me slightly worried that Vegas knows something we don’t.

One main reason I’m surprised at Chelsea’s value on the moneyline is Brighton’s less-than-stellar record at the Amex. The team from the coast has only taken eight points in five home games this season, and the 2021/22 campaign wasn’t much better. The Seagulls finished 16th in the home table with a -4 goal differential, although they managed to hold the Blues to a 1-1 draw at the end of January.

Historically, the Pride of London has dominated this fixture, with only one blemish on its near-perfect record. I’m not sure we need to take that result into account, though, as it came in a thrilling 2-1 FA Cup clash back in 1933. Since then, it’s been all CFC. I really can’t see a shocking Brighton victory this weekend, which is why I’m leaning toward taking the Blues ML.

Official Chelsea odds (via FanDuel as of October 28)

Chelsea ML: +145

Brighton ML: +195

Draw: +220

Over/Under: 2.5 (+112/-136)

My picks:

I imagine Saturday’s match will start in the same way that the midweek UCL contest against RB Salzburg did, with an aggressive opening 15’ from the home side to put the road team on its heels. If Chelsea can survive that initial wave of attack without conceding, they should be able to take control of the game and dictate the tempo for an extended period. I trust Potter will have a solid tactical plan against his former club, so give me the Blues on the moneyline at +145.

If this aforementioned strategy is successful, I wouldn’t expect to see the ball find the back of the net very much. CFC’s ability to retain possession for prolonged stretches is arguably its best trait, and as we have seen for much of the early season, capitalizing on this possession is not. I like under 2.5 total goals scored at -136 odds for this reason. Finally, I’ll take the Blues to win either half at -122. Riding favorites has been a fairly profitable approach so far for our betting guides at The Pride of London, so let’s continue to play it safe and win some money. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.