The impressive start to Graham Potter’s managerial reign at Chelsea came to a crashing halt on Saturday. Many pundits had highlighted the Blues’ trip to the Amex as one of the weekend’s best fixtures, especially considering the off-the-pitch storylines surrounding the match, although very few predicted the outcome correctly. Brighton & Hove Albion’s 4-1 victory over the former European champions came down to a tactical thrashing by both Roberto De Zerbi and his players, many of whom were likely feeling particularly motivated to prove a point against their former boss. The point has been heard, no doubt.
The defeat leaves CFC in sixth place on a very congested Premier League table, although the team’s attention must turn to continental competition for the moment. The Blues host Dinamo Zagreb in a completely meaningless match on Wednesday, with the pride of London having qualified for the round of 16 last week and the Croatian side already eliminated. I predict Potter will deploy a heavily-rotated starting XI against Zagreb with the derby against Arsenal looming large on Sunday, so I’m surprised to see the oddsmakers favoring Chelsea very heavily on the moneyline at -320. Seeing as the most recent encounter between these two clubs resulted in Thomas Tuchel losing his job, I don’t feel confident about much ahead of this iteration of the matchup.
I do appreciate that our friends over at FanDuel increased the number for the goal total against Zagreb from 2.5 to 3.5, which generally presents us bettors with a pretty safe play. I like the under a lot, albeit at -182 odds, and would recommend making this bet your biggest play of the day. Last Saturday was only the second time a Blues match eclipsed three goals all season, but the first in the Potter era. Additionally, while the reigning Croatian champions pose a serious attacking threat to their domestic rivals, they’ve been relatively unsuccessful in finding the back of the net in the UCL. I’m really not expecting much entertainment value from this match and we already know the drill when it comes to taking unders. Place the bet, hold your nose, and wait for the money to roll in.
I’m feeling the need to double-down on this low-scoring prediction, so I’ve been monitoring the other under props in the lead up to kickoff. Under 1.5 first half goals at -168 is pretty solid value, in my opinion. I expect Zagreb to start the match on the front foot and try to find a goal on the counter, as it did back in September when Miroslav Orsic scored in the 13’. Potter and his players will need to be prepared for this initial onslaught, though. If the Blues’ defense can soak up the early pressure, dictate the tempo with quick passes, and tire out their opponents’ high press, they likely won’t repeat a second consecutive cataclysmic first 45’.
Official Chelsea odds (via FanDuel as of November 1)
Chelsea ML: -320
Dinamo Zagreb ML: +850
Draw: +460
Over/Under: 3.5 (+148/-182)
My picks:
I don’t feel too bad about going 0-for-3 on picks against Brighton because I’m pretty sure no one else saw that result coming either. Regardless, anytime is a good time to bounce back, so I’ll hopefully have better luck in the UCL. For the Zagreb match, give me under 3.5 total goals at -182 odds, as well as under 1.5 first half goals at -168. Finally, I like the both teams to NOT score prop at -104. Apologies for predicting an absolute ‘snoozefest’, but I won’t mind the lack of spectacle if my bets are hitting.