World Cup round of 16 betting guide and tips

Morocco (and Chelsea winger Hakim Ziyech) to qualify for the next round vs. Spain (+330)

Some readers might think I’m crazy for even selecting this as one of my bets, but this is honestly my favorite pick for the entire round of 16. The Atlas Lions have been one of the biggest surprises of the 2022 World Cup so far, topping Group F with wins over Canada and Belgium and a draw against Croatia. The Blues’ enigmatic winger, Hakim Ziyech, is the central figure in the Moroccan attack, scoring once and assisting once on the right side of a dangerous triumvirate with Youssef En-Nesyri and Sofiane Boufal.

In typical Ziyech fashion, the Wizard of Ams found the back of the net from nearly the halfway line in what is so far probably the goal of the tournament. The fact that he’s even featuring for Morocco is pretty shocking considering he had announced his retirement from the national team after being left out of the 2021 AFCON squad amid a fallout with then-manager Vahid Halilhodzic. Ziyech’s teammates and countrymen are undoubtedly glad to see him back donning the famous red jersey.

While the Atlas Lions are carrying tons of momentum following their group stage performance, the exact opposite can be said for their opponents, Spain. Luis Enrique and his boys were shocked by Japan 2-1 on matchday three, with only their significant goal difference thanks to the 7-0 drubbing of Costa Rica taking La Seleccion through to the knockout round.

Spain’s inability to break down the Japanese with its trademark tiki-taka passing game was incredibly surprising, even drawing notice from the commentators, but perhaps now Morocco has a playbook for how to handle the 2010 world champions. Scoring the first goal will be imperative, and from there the Moroccans will need to sit deep and prevent Alvaro Morata from making runs in behind the defense. The Spanish No. 7 is the joint-top scorer at the tournament right now along with four other players, but Morata is the only one to have scored in every match. Shutting the former Chelsea striker down will be no easy task, but I’m confident that the Atlas Lions’ back line, which thus far hasn’t allowed a single goal to an opposing player, will stay solid. The odds are already incredible at +330, but I’m highly considering sprinkling a flier on a Morocco to advance/Ziyech anytime goalscorer parlay at +1560.