Chelsea vs Manchester City: Premier League betting guide and tips

Here are your betting guide and tips for the Premier League clash of Chelsea with Manchester City

The Blues’ rollercoaster of a 2022/23 campaign took another turn in the wrong direction when the team was held to a 1-1 draw at The City Ground over the weekend. It was a truly toothless performance from Chelsea, who totaled fewer expected goals, shots, and shots on target than Nottingham Forest, despite having 72% ball possession.

The same problems that have plagued the former European champions all season, mainly a lack of chance creation and an inability to finish the few chances that do come, continued to rear their ugly head against the Tricky Trees.

The players’ collective lack of desire to push for a late winner was especially shocking. And now, with the club sitting 10th in the Premier League table behind the likes of Fulham, Brighton, and Brentford, the reigning champions will descend on Stamford Bridge.

The first matchup between Chelsea and Manchester City this season only finished 2-0 in favor of the side from the north, but the scoreline would’ve been much more one-sided if it weren’t for some incredible last-ditch defending during the first half.

The Blues were somewhat unlucky in that they came up against the best performance of Stefan Ortega’s career, but City was clearly the superior team throughout the 90’. Pep Guardiola didn’t even utilize Erling Haaland last time out, so who knows how the Norwegian hitman will influence the match on Thursday?

I don’t have much optimism that Graham Potter and his men can pull off an upset, but that doesn’t mean we Chelsea supporters have to be entirely miserable. Winning our bets and collecting money always helps to soften the blow of a devastating Blues’ defeat. Sounds like it’s time for an emotional hedge.

Every once in a while, I open up the FanDuel app and see a set of odds that leaves me absolutely stunned. This happened a few days ago when I first checked to see just how badly Vegas thinks Chelsea will fare against Guardiola and his ruthless winning machine.

Turns out, it’s not that bad. Favoring the Citizens at only -155 odds on the moneyline is legitimately crazy considering how obvious the talent discrepancy between these two sides became during their last meeting. I feel like it bears repeating; THAT HAPPENED WITHOUT HAALAND.

Since that match, the forms of these teams have been moving in opposite directions as well. Chelsea has scored only three goals in three games, while Man City has found the back of the net eight times in four. These clubs are simply operating at different levels right now, both on and off the pitch. Don’t overthink this, bet on City.

While I’ve been pretty negative toward our beloved Blues for the majority of this article, I’ll at least go neutral with a second potential play. Over 2.5 total goals scored at -130 odds is pretty average value, but neither of these backlines has been at its best over the past few contests.

Chelsea has only kept one clean sheet since the middle of October and the Mancunian side has conceded in five of its last six Premier League matches. It’s remarkable that both teams still boast top-four defenses in the English top flight, but there’s been very little evidence of that lately.

I really like the over, and I even think the Blues can find the goal themselves at some point during the 90’. Whether or not that goal will be meaningful is an entirely different discussion, but I’m confident we’ll get some entertainment value from the clash.

Official odds (via FanDuel as of January 4)

Chelsea ML: +420

Manchester City ML: -160

Draw: +300

Over/Under: 2.5 (-130/+106)

My picks

At the beginning of this, I warned you that there wouldn’t be much optimism coming from my end, and I think my picks reflect that belief. Sometimes it’s better to just put the fandom in the backseat and make the logical bets. With that in mind, give me Manchester City moneyline at -155 odds and over 2.5 goals at -130.

I think it’s time to go for glory with my final play for this match. There is not a single player across the top five European leagues who has been a bigger lock on the anytime goalscorer prop than Haaland this season.

Guardiola’s new No. 9 is on track to shatter the EPL single-season scoring record and has become so potent in front of goal that he’s been favored to score rather than not on FanDuel ahead of City’s past few games.

He is again against Chelsea, this time at -125 odds, so this will probably be my best opportunity to finally hit on an anytime goalscorer prop for the rest of the year. I’m riding with this kid, he’s an absolute machine.