Chelsea at Liverpool: Premier League betting guide and tips

Here is your Pride of London betting guide and tips for Chelsea’s Premier League clash against Liverpool.

For the first time in quite a while, I feel a slight sense of optimism while writing about our beloved Chelsea. Despite sitting in 10th place in the Premier League and having been knocked out of both domestic cup competitions, the Blues dominated the headlines over the past week with their actions in the transfer market. Todd Boehly and the club’s hierarchy completely refreshed the forward line by reportedly bringing in Mykhailo Mudryk and Noni Madueke, two high-energy players who should instantly be fighting for places in the starting XI. The team’s insurmountable injury problems finally seem to be resolving themselves as well, with Reece James, N’Golo Kante, Ben Chilwell, and Ruben Loftus-Cheek all pictured in training. I still think it’s unlikely that Chelsea finishes the season in the top four or collects any silverware, so it’s hard to classify the campaign as anything less than a disappointment. At least things are moving in the right direction.

Of course, now that there are positive feelings surrounding Stamford Bridge, the Blues must travel north to take on Liverpool. The Reds’ season hasn’t gone according to plan either, with countless injuries and an underperforming no. 9 preventing the one-time EPL champs from reaching their top form. They still sit above Chelsea in the table, though, and are scoring goals at an extremely impressive rate. Recent history between these two sides would tell you that Jurgen Klopp will have his men prepared to sit back and absorb pressure from their opponents, as the previous two meetings finished in 0-0 draws that were ultimately decided by penalty kicks. I’m not expecting a ton of entertainment value from this edition of a big six clash either, but both teams are in serious need of a victory. Perhaps their desperation will breed excitement.

Now, let’s get down to business. I’ve rarely seen Chelsea listed as this big of an underdog, +300 odds on the moneyline, in the almost-year since we started the betting guide series at The Pride of London. I find it strange that the oddsmakers are so enamored by this Liverpool side that hasn’t reached the same levels we’re accustomed to seeing from Klopp’s gegenpressing machine. The Liverpudlian fullbacks have been particularly disappointing, as both Trent Alexander-Arnold and Andy Robertson were key cogs that helped the Reds achieve domestic and continental success in past years. Their output going forward has dropped off most noticeably, having combined for 22 assists during the 2021/22 season compared to just six so far in 2022/23. Regardless of whether or not the Blues can find the back of the net, I doubt we’ll see much creativity from Liverpool’s heavily-rotated attack. I like the home team to score under 1.5 goals prop at +100 odds.

A second play I’ve been eyeing in the leadup to the match is Chelsea to win or draw at -115 odds. I don’t have many stats to back this pick, I just feel that these two sides are more evenly matched than the oddsmakers think. My main concern for the bet is the home-field advantage provided by the Anfield faithful, which has guided the Reds to six wins in nine home contests this season. Graham Potter will need to have the Blues ready to face an aggressive onslaught from the opening kickoff, as conceding an early goal in front of a crazed Kop could shatter his players’ mentalities.

Official odds (via FanDuel as of January 20)

Chelsea ML: +300

Liverpool ML: -115

Draw: +270

Over/Under: 2.5 (-140/+116)

My Chelsea picks

I’ve mentioned in the guides for the past few games that betting neutral or against Chelsea has been an extremely profitable strategy since the World Cup break. I’ve gone ⅔ in each of the past two guides using this approach, but I have to change things up. I genuinely don’t understand the hype surrounding a decimated Liverpool at the moment, so I’m going full homer with my picks for Saturday. Give me the home team to score under 1.5 goals at +100 odds, as well as the Blues to win or draw at -115.

I’m buying fully into the new singing narrative for my final play. During his pre-match press conference, Potter insinuated that Mudryk will see the field at some point this weekend, although it likely won’t be for a full 90’. Even so, I’m backing the Ukrainian starlet to score on his Premier League debut at +310 odds. If CFC manages to pull off the upset this weekend, it could be the beginning of something special for the club from the capital. (Please note: odds are subject to change)