Chelsea vs Leeds: EPL betting guide and tips

I’ve mentioned this in the past few guides, but under 2.5 total goals has been one of the most consistent props during this Chelsea season. And with odds listed at -108 for the Leeds clash, you know I’ll be riding it on Saturday. Both sides are in the bottom half of the Premier League in terms of xG and goals scored, and only one player on either team has eclipsed five goals in all competitions; Rodrigo Moreno, who will miss the contest with injury, has 10. Recent results also support playing the under, as it would’ve cashed in all of the Blues’ past five matches and four of the Whites’ five previous outings. Calamitous goalkeeping is the only thing that could push this game over 2.5 goals, so I feel pretty confident ahead of kickoff.

While I’ve certainly had more success making neutral picks during the west London side’s horrendous run of form, I rarely like to actually bet against the team’s success. I think I have to do it for this weekend’s match, though. The home team under 1.5 goals prop at +106 odds is incredible value, even for the most ardent supporter. The Blues haven’t scored multiple goals since December 27 against Bournemouth, and have found the back of the net only four times in all of 2023.